Every week (except two) during the NFL season, I wrote up my NFL player props for the weekend. In those writeups, I went 42-19 (68.9%), so it has been a very solid season on those.
Of course, there's no better game for prop betting than the Super Bowl. With so many markets, lines have plenty of time to move before the game itself kicks off. So, my picks will come earlier than usual ahead of kickoff.
Here's how I'm betting on Xavier Worthy for Chiefs vs. Eagles in Super Bowl 59.
Parlay: Xavier Worthy Under 5.5 Receptions & Anytime TD Scorer (+475)
Xavier Worthy has been a focal point of the Chiefs offense, especially in the playoffs with 13 targets and three rush attempts in the Chiefs' two wins. That includes six red-zone touches in the form of five targets and one carry.
However, Worthy gets a difficult matchup against an Eagles secondary that has been one of the best in the NFL, especially in preventing targets and catch rate to opposing wide receivers. Only the Texans have allowed a lower catch percentage to opposing wideouts. Despite the Eagles' stellar record and playing 67.5% of their defensive snaps with the lead, they've allowed a bottom-half rate of receptions to opposing receivers.
Specific to Worthy, in the current rotation with Hollywood Brown back in the fold, Worthy has lined up out wide nearly half the time and in the slot, inline, or in the backfield the other half.
When Worthy lines up out wide, it's been with a slight lean to the offensive left side (26% left vs. 21% right). There, he'd line up against standout Eagles rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell, who's allowed the lowest target rate on the team by far while limiting opposing receivers to a sub-55% catch rate.
Worthy's catch rate this year is 63% when we include the playoffs but based on his expected matchups, I'm projecting his catch rate closer to 59% on just under 8.5 targets. That means I project his receptions right at around with plenty of value under 5.5 receptions. The best line on that bet is -139 at DraftKings with BetMGM not far behind at -140.
However, I also show value on his anytime touchdown scorer odds at +165 at BetMGM thanks to both his rushing and receiving ability and red-zone volume. Especially in this matchup, Worthy may line up in multiple places in the red zone where he'd avoid the Eagles' trio of stud CBs in Mitchell, Darius Slay and fellow rookie Cooper DeJean.
With that, it makes a lot of sense to parlay the two knowing we'll get a negative correlation odds boost here.
Ordinarily, a parlay at -140 and +165 would pay out +354, but the negative correlation of an under on receptions with a touchdown bet gets us to +475 at BetMGM.
Since I show value on both individual bets and we're getting the inverse-correlation boost, I'll make that my first Super Bowl prop bet for one-half unit.
