It's the final game of the season, so we better make these 2024 Super Bowl picks count.
Everything you'll see below is a prop that I've wagered as one of my best bets for 49ers vs Chiefs today, coming off a regular season in which we hit over 67% of our bets before hitting 70% through this postseason. I've also included my best bet on the spread, which is on the Chiefs to cover.
Super Bowl Picks: Expert's Best Bets for 49ers vs Chiefs
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
For even more Super Bowl best bets from all of our experts and the latest odds, check out Super Bowl Best Bets, Odds: 10 Picks for Chiefs vs 49ers.
Patrick Mahomes
Under 0.5 Interceptions (-110)
Mahomes has thrown a pick in 48 of 96 regular season games, but only four of 17 postseason games (23.5%). He has not thrown a pick in his last six postseason games.
Over the past four games, he has not even had a turnover-worthy play – a stretch that spans 147 dropbacks and 132 attempts.
Six of his 14 interceptions this season have come when targeting Mecole Hardman Jr., Kadarius Toney, Justyn Ross, and Skyy Moore, who are collectively expected to play very little in the Super Bowl, if at all.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 Interceptions (-110)
Rashee Rice
Super Bowl MVP (+6600)
If the Super Bowl MVP goes to a skill-position player instead of a quarterback, it tends to be a yardage award. Among the 15 skill-position players who have won the award, 14 (93%) led the game in scrimmage yards; 12 (80%) led their team in scrimmage yards; and 13 (87%) saw their quarterback throw for under 280 yards.
You don’t have to go back much further than Rice’s last four games to see those are realistic outcomes for him: He posted 127 receiving yards in a 25-17 win over the Bengals in Week 17 while Mahomes threw for 245, and 130 receiving yards in a 26-7 win over the Dolphins in the Wild Card Round while Mahomes threw for 262.
Pick: Rashee Rice Super Bowl MVP (+6600, Bet to +5000)
Isiah Pacheco
Super Bowl MVP (+3300)
Again: If the Super Bowl MVP goes to a skill-position player instead of a quarterback, it tends to be a yardage award. Pacheco projects for the second-most scrimmage yards in this game, behind only Christian McCaffrey.
He also projects for the second-best anytime TD probability. Pacheco has logged 25 or more touches in three of his past four games and will face a 49ers defense that ranks 28th in rush success rate (45%) and 23rd in EPA/rush (-0.037) since Week 12.
Pacheco has posted 111 or more scrimmage yards in four games, and Mahomes did not exceed 245 passing yards in any of those games.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl MVP (+3300, Bet to +2500)
Blake Bell
Anytime TD Scorer (+3000)
Odds in the anytime TD market tend to be inflated across the board, but Bell sticks out as a player who has fair odds. He has scored in one of his 20 games this season (5%), and 2-of-24 (8%) over the past two seasons. As the No. 3 tight end, Bell is not targeted often, but if he does happen to get a target, he is a good bet to score, with 25% of his receptions and 15% of his targets finding paydirt over the past two seasons.
With the Chiefs playing more 13 personnel, Bell has played 16 or more snaps in all three postseason games, with his postseason average of 17.3 snaps representing an increase of 4.0 snaps per game relative to his regular-season average of 13.3 (excluding Week 18). Bell’s TD odds are improved because Andy Reid refuses to call sneaks for Patrick Mahomes ever since Mahomes dislocated his kneecap on a sneak a few years ago.
Bell, a former college quarterback, has four rushing attempts in his Chiefs career, so there might be a chance for him to jump in for a tush push or some other type of QB sneak if the Chiefs are at the goal line.
Pick: Blake Bell Anytime TD Scorer (+3000)
Harrison Butker & Jake Moody
No Missed FG or Extra Points (+100)
Harrison Butker is 40-of-42 (95%) on field goals and 45-of-45 on extra points while Jake Moody is 24-of-30 (80.0%) on field goals and 67-of-68 (98.5%) on extra points. Butker missed a kick in 2-of-20 games (10.0%), and while Moody has missed seven kicks in total, they all came in five games (26%).
All but one of Moody’s misses came outdoors, and three came in rainy conditions, which won’t be a factor indoors at Allegiant stadium. Despite playing indoors, I’m still factoring in downward regression for Butker’s unsustainable rate, but it’s offset by projected positive regression for Moody. All in all, I’m projecting a 55% chance of neither kicker missing a kick in this game.
Pick: Jake Moody & Harrison Butker No Missed FG or Extra Points (+100)
49ers & Chiefs
No Successful 2-Point Conversion (-350)
The 49ers are yet to go for two this season, and the Chiefs have gone for two only once this season, failing to convert. That’s only one combined 2-point attempt across 39 combined games and 115 combined touchdowns.
Two-point conversion attempt rate is a highly volatile stat that would take nearly two season’s worth of games to stabilize, but even after factoring in the appropriate amount of regression to the mean, I’m projecting just an 18% chance of a successful 2-point try by either team.
Pick: 49ers & Chiefs No Successful 2-Point Conversion (-350)
Kansas City Chiefs
Cover the Spread
Mahomes has nearly as many Super Bowl pass attempts (118) as Purdy has postseason pass attempts (133). Spagnuolo is one of the few defensive coordinators that can match wits with Shanahan. Spagnuolo’s second-half adjustments are second-to-none, helping the Chiefs allow an NFL-low 6.8 points per game in the second half this season. Reid has won two Super Bowls and been to four, while Shanahan is 0-2, with the elephant in the room being his team blew big leads in both.
Also , after facing a rest disadvantage each week from Week 12-17 and playing their final two playoff games on the road, the Chiefs are more battle-tested than a 49ers squad that has not played a game away from home since Dec. 31, 2023.
And finally, not only does Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker also have the edge in big-game experience over 49ers rookie Jake Moody, but Butker has made 40-of-42 field goals (95.2%) this season while Moody has connected on 24-of-30 (80.0%).
You can find my full breakdown of my Super Bowl pick against the spread here.
Pick: Chiefs to Cover the Spread
