I have my first three Super Bowl picks for Chiefs vs. Eagles.
This is the biggest game of the NFL season and each team has two weeks to prepare. There are going to be some wrinkles on both sides that we haven’t seen before. We also have four great coordinators for every unit in this game, which should be played at a very high level.
Let’s get into it. I originally gave these picks as part of our Sunday Six Pack on “The Action Network Podcast” with Chris Raybon.
Eagles 1H +0.5 (-125)
This line moved quickly on Monday. It was Eagles 1H -1.5 (-125) at FanDuel earlier in the day, but there it's now Eagles -1.5, surprisingly. I'd still play this at +0.5.
Every point is especially important in the Super Bowl with games generally starting slowly, so I paid a bit more for +1.5 earlier in the day. With that, first-quarter unders are also typically a good Super Bowl bet, but the markets have adjusted on that.
I had this bet last year with the 49ers, and it won. This has also been a profitable pick in Chiefs Super Bowl appearances under Patrick Mahomes.
In the Chiefs’ four Super Bowl appearances with Mahomes at the helm, they have never been leading at halftime. Naturally, they’ve won three of them. If you’re looking to fade Kansas City, this might be your best chance to do so without getting your heart broken.
I think the Eagles are the better team, and I’d also rather fade the Chiefs defense before Steve Spagnuolo can make adjustments at halftime. I think the Kansas City defense is overrated and vulnerable, so we’ll bet on that being exploited before any significant changes can happen.
Dallas Goedert 50+ Receiving Yards (-118)
I love this matchup for Dallas Goedert. This line, though, has already gone up from 45.5 at open right after the conference championship games, so 51.5 is about as high as I’d want to go if it gets there.
Goedert looks fully healthy after missing some time during the regular season. He’s averaging 4.5 receptions on 5.5 targets for 51.5 yards over his last seven games.
This matchup is good for him for a few reasons, one of which is that the Eagles are less likely than usual to be playing with a lead. With that, you might see more Jalen Hurtspass attempts.
You also might see the Chiefs play more man defense than usual, which they do at an above-average rate, especially in the playoffs. Goedert is a monster against man coverage and led all tight ends in yards per route run against it.
The Chiefs are very good against perimeter receivers and are probably going to blitz a lot. Hurts will have to get rid of the ball quickly, which will make Goedert a prime target.
In eight career playoff games, Goedert is averaging six receptions on 7.8 targets and 64.4 receiving yards per game. The median there is about 5.5 receptions on 6.5 targets for about 60 yards. I also bet the over on his receptions, as well.
Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush Attempt Under 13.5 Yards (-115))
I think this opened at 10.5 at some books, which I thought was fair. Patrick Mahomes rushing overs are popular plays now, though, so we’re getting some inflation.
I’ve heard this narrative that rushing quarterbacks have gone over their totals in the playoffs. Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels did in three of their four playoff games and had a rush of at least 14 yards in three of those four games. Those three ran the ball a total of 30 times, though, and it was only those three aforementioned rushes that got at least 14 yards. That’s 10% of their carries.
Let’s assume Mahomes is on par with them in terms of mobility, which he’s not. That doesn’t make this a great bet. I think he would need eight or nine carries to hit this over. He could do it if the Chiefs get a third-and-17 or something like that since we have seen it happen.
In his playoff career, Mahomes has 108 total rush attempts, about 5.5 per game including kneel-downs. He’s run for 14 or more yards 10 times, about 9% of the time. This season, he has had a 14-yard carry in just five of the 18 games he has played.
Now, he’s playing a defense that doesn’t give up explosive plays and keeps everything in front of it. This isn’t the spot for him to break that trend.
