Super Bowl 55 brings with it a whole host of player prop opportunities, which I plan to exploit with full enthusiasm as we approach kickoff.
To leverage our projections and sort through all the player props available at different sportsbooks, use our new Props Tool at Action Labs.
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Below you'll find my breakdown of various player props that I plan to bet.
Super Bowl Player Prop Bets
Tyreek Hill Prop Bets
Over 92.5 Yards Receiving
Betting the over on a big-name player is an embarrassingly square thing to do — but I can't help myself with Hill. As I mention in my Super Bowl WR/CB matchup breakdown, I do not believe that the Buccaneers have a cornerback who can hang with the speedy playmaker.
First of all, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid constantly moves his receivers around the field, which means that it will be hard for the Bucs to scheme to take away Hill.
On top of that, regardless of where he lines up he always has the potential to go off.
In the Super Bowl last year, Hill was 9-105-0 receiving on 16 targets. In two playoff games this year, he is 17-282-0 on 21 targets. And against the Bucs in Week 12, he was a career-best 13-269-3 on 15 targets.
A three-time All-Pro, Hill is one of the best receivers in the league. With his speed and ability to line up on the perimeter and in the slot, Hill is an incredibly difficult player to scheme against for opposing defenses.
And in the slot, where I expect him to line up most, Hill has a real edge over cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, who is the most vulnerable of the three starting corners for the Bucs. For his career, he has allowed a 74.3% catch rate, and this year in particular he has yielded 9.0 yards per target and seven touchdowns.
Against Murphy-Bunting, Hill should put up stats.
- Action: Over 92.5 (-110) at FanDuel
- Limit: Over 98.5 (-110)
Over 7.5 Receptions
In the Super Bowl last year, Hill had nine receptions. In the Divisional Round, he had eight. In the AFC Championship, he had nine.
And in Week 12 against the Bucs, he had a career-high 13 receptions.
Since Week 8, Hill has averaged 10.7 targets per game.
With this data, it's hard for me not to bet the over.
- Action: Over 7.5 (+110) at DraftKings
- Limit: Over 7.5 (-110)
Over 22.5 DraftKings Points
Hill started the season slowly, but since Week 8 he has a mean of 27.4 DraftKings points and median of 26.0.
In that 10-game stretch, he has had fewer than 22.5 DraftKings points just thrice. And I need hardly say that in Week 12 against the Bucs, Hill had a career-high 60.9 DraftKings points.
If you look at our FantasyLabs Models, you'll see that Sean Koerner — for my money, the best projections creator in the industry — is currently projecting Hill for 20.8 DraftKings points in Super Bowl 55.
I almost never go against Koerner's projections, but in this instance, I must.
- Action: Over 22.5 (+100) at DraftKings
- Limit: Over 23.5 (-112)
Travis Kelce Prop Bets
Over 94.5 Yards Receiving
In case you are unaware, I am a donkey. And as a full-fledged ass, I am highly inclined to bet the over on every Kelce prop I see.
In the regular season, he set an NFL record for all tight ends with 1,416 yards receiving — in only 15 games — and as good as Kelce was for the entirety of the season, he was even better in the second half.
For Kelce's 17 games this year (including postseason), he has a median of 98 yards, but since Week 8 — when quarterback Patrick Mahomes started targeting him at a higher frequency of drop backs — Kelce has a median of 113.5 yards.
For the season, Kelce's yardage prop over is 12-5. Since Week 8, it's 8-2.
On the one hand, Kelce had "only" eight targets and 82 yards against the Buccaneers in Week 12.
On the other, those eight targets were the fewest he has seen in any game since Week 8. And in the regular season the Bucs were most vulnerable against tight ends, ranking No. 25 with an 11.6% pass-defense DVOA against the position (per Football Outsiders).
This is a great matchup for Kelce, who is 21-227-3 on 25 targets in two playoff games this year.
It's not hard to imagine him smashing.
- Action: Over 96.5 (-115) at PointsBet
- Limit: Over 98.5 (-110)
Over 7.5 Receptions
At most books, this line is 8.5, which I think is fair. I have it projected for 8.7, and since Week 8, Kelce has averaged 8.6 receptions per game.
But at FanDuel this line is 7.5, and I'm betting that for sure.
Since Week 8, Kelce has had 10-plus targets in every game but one, and over that stretch his receptions prop over is 9-1.
In his past 10 games, Kelce has failed to amass eight-plus receptions just once.
With his sheer target volume — Kelce has a median of 12 targets since Week 8 — he has a strong chance of hitting the over.
- Action: Over 7.5 (-146) at FanDuel
- Limit: Over 7.5 (-180)
Over 24.5 DraftKings Points
This is an outrageously high fantasy points total, but it's fair. In fact, it's right in line with the projection Sean Koerner has for Kelce in our FantasyLabs Models.
That said, I still think it's too low.
For the season, Kelce has a median of 24.0 DraftKings points, and in Week 12 against the Bucs, he had just 16.2 DraftKings points — but I don't think those numbers matter.
Since Week 8, when Kelce first saw an uptick in target volume, he has a scorching mean of 27.8 DraftKings points and median of 28.4. Over that 10-game stretch, Kelce has gone over 24.5 DraftKings points seven times, and his 16.2 points against the Bucs marked his low point.
I don't expect Kelce to have a "bottom percentile" performance in the Super Bowl.
- Action: Over 24.5 (-112) at DraftKings
- Limit: Over 25.5 (-112)
Mike Evans Prop Bets
Under 63.5 Yards Receiving
Evans is great. That's undeniable. This year, Evans became the first player in NFL history to open his career with seven 1,000-yard receiving campaigns.
When the NFL Hall of Fame is tweeting about a guy, he’s probably pretty good.
The HOF is tweeting about Mike Evans 👀 https://t.co/S9E1wIDYMW
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) January 3, 2021
But as I mention in my Super Bowl WR/CB matchup breakdown, his matchup is tough.
The Chiefs don't have any truly dominant corners, but in the regular season they were No. 2 in fewest yards allowed to wide receivers with 2,159, and that's a function of their scheme, which is designed to limit big plays deep and on the perimeter.
Essentially, the Chiefs' pass defense is structured to funnel production away from wide receivers and toward tight ends and running backs, and that's not good for Evans.
We saw this dynamic at work when the Bucs played the Chiefs in Week 12: Evans scored two touchdowns on nine targets and quarterback Tom Brady passed for 345 yards — yet Evans had just 50 yards on three receptions.
How is it possible for Brady to pass for so many yards and for Evans to get so few of them?
Tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate combined for 140 yards, and running backs Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones combined for 47 yards.
Even if Brady goes off — and there's no guarantee that he will — it's far from a certainty that his production will flow to Evans: The Chiefs' pass defense is constructed to prevent exactly that.
At right corner, Bashaud Breeland will likely match up most with Evans, and this year Breeland has allowed just 6.5 yards per target with a 58.8% catch rate.
Breeland has also allowed five touchdowns this year and can be beaten deep on occasion, but he is a physical corner who won’t be afraid to mix it up with Evans.
Against Breeland specifically in Week 12, Evans had just seven yards on five targets.
As great as Evans is, he has gone over 63.5 yards receiving in just 7-of-19 games.
- Action: Under 63.5 (-110) at FanDuel
- Limit: Over 59.5 (-110)
Under 4.5 Receptions
This number isn't massively off, but I think it's a little high. I have Evans projected for 4.1 receptions.
This year, he has averaged 4.2 receptions across 19 games with a median of 4.0, and against the Chiefs in Week 12 he had just three receptions despite seeing nine targets.
As I've said already, the matchup is tough: In the regular season, the Chiefs held opposing wide receivers to a league-low 169 receptions.
With his size and skill, Evans can bully his way to five-plus receptions in any given game, but because of the Chiefs' pass defense, I think the under is likely.
- Action: Under 4.5 (-120) at DraftKings
- Limit: Under 4.5 (-130)
Chris Godwin Prop Bets
Under 77.5 Yards Receiving
On the Buccaneers, Mike Evans is the wide receiver who gets the glory: He's the guy to open his career with seven consecutive 1,000-yard receiving campaigns.
But over the past two years, Godwin has arguably been the better receiver (including postseason).
- Chris Godwin (29 games): 165-2,396-17 receiving | 10.3 yards per target
- Mike Evans (32 games): 147-2,336-23 receiving | 9.4 yards per target
But as I mention in my Super Bowl WR/CB matchup breakdown, his matchup is tough.
The Chiefs don’t have any truly dominant corners, but in the regular season they were No. 2 in fewest yards allowed to wide receivers with 2,159, and that’s a function of their scheme, which is designed to limit big plays deep and on the perimeter.
Essentially, the Chiefs' pass defense is structured to funnel production away from wide receivers and toward tight ends and running backs.
On top of that, fourth-round rookie L’Jarius Sneed has been a difference-making standout in the slot, where Godwin is likely to play most of his snaps. Sneed (concussion) is still in the league’s protocol and is officially questionable, but he has practiced in full this week, and I tentatively expect him to be cleared to play.
In Weeks 1-3, Snead started on the perimeter in cornerback Bashaud Breeland’s absence, and then, after missing Weeks 4-10 to injury, he shifted to the middle in Week 11 and has been the starter there ever since.
Despite his status as a mid-round first-year slot man, Sneed has allowed just 5.0 yards per target with a 1:3 TD:INT ratio and a 73.3 Pro Football Focus coverage grade.
Godwin had a muscular 97 yards receiving on nine targets against the Chiefs in Week 12, but much of that production came when he was matched up with other cornerbacks or safeties. Against Sneed directly, he was just 2-10-0 on two targets — and that was just Sneed's second week as the full-time slot defender. Sneed has gotten better since then.
As much as any rookie can, Snead should challenge the veteran Godwin.
- Action: Under 77.5 (-118) at DraftKings
- Limit: Over 72.5 (-110)
Scotty Miller Prop Bets
Under 20.5 Yards Receiving
Miller has a number of factors working against him.
First of all, No. 3 wide receiver Antonio Brown (knee) returned to full practice on Thursday and is on track to play in the Super Bowl. While that's good for the Buccaneers, that's massively detrimental to Miller's production: In his 10 games with Brown, Miller has gone over 20.5 yards receiving just twice.
On top of that, Miller has recently had to compete with rookie Tyler Johnson for playing time. In the regular season, Miller played well ahead of Johnson first as a starter and then as a rotational receiver once Brown joined the team, but in the postseason they have had similar usage.
- Scotty Miller (3 games): 44 snaps | 30 routes
- Tyler Johnson (3 games): 46 snaps | 28 routes
With Brown playing ahead of him and Johnson pressing him for snaps, Miller will have an especially hard time hitting the over.
And none of this takes into account his matchup. As I mention in my Super Bowl WR/CB matchup breakdown, the Chiefs are tough against opposing receivers.
They don’t have any truly dominant corners but in the regular season, they were No. 2 in fewest yards allowed to wide receivers with 2,159, and that’s a function of their scheme, which is designed to limit big plays deep and on the perimeter.
Essentially, the Chiefs pass defense is structured to funnel production away from wide receivers and toward tight ends and running backs, and that’s not good for Miller.
We saw this dynamic at work when the Bucs played the Chiefs in Week 12, when the tight ends and running backs combined for 187 yards receiving while Miller had zero yards on one target and 10 snaps.
The matchup is tough — and Miller probably won't get enough playing time anyway.
- Action: Under 20.5 (-105) at FanDuel
- Limit: Under 15.5 (-110)
Under 1.5 Receptions
In his 10 games with Brown, Miller has gone over 1.5 receptions just once. And the Chiefs held opposing wide receivers to a league-low 169 receptions in the regular season.
I can't imagine being a living, breathing human being with free will and a ready bankroll and not betting this prop.
- Action: Under 1.5 (-162) at DraftKings
- Limit: Under 1.5 (-200)
Matthew Freedman is 1,004-797-37 (55.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
