Super Bowl Player Props: Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelce, Brandon Aiyuk, More
In the table below, you'll find each of our NFL staff's top Super Bowl player props for 49ers-Chiefs. From star players (Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy and George Kittle) to role players (Jauan Jennings, Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling), we have you covered.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
49ers vs. Chiefs: Mahomes INT
Patrick Mahomes
Under 0.5 Interceptions (-115)
As much as I like the Chiefs in this matchup, I would recommend staying away from Mahomes’ passing overs. Mahomes has attempted 39-plus passes in two of three playoff games, and he still stayed under the 265-yard mark in all three contests while throwing a total of just four touchdown passes.
With that in mind, the main reason why Mahomes’ passing yardage numbers are down in the playoffs is because the Chiefs are connecting on safer and shorter routes as they scheme to lean on their defense and dominate time of possession, which has resulted in Mahomes throwing a grand total of zero interceptions on 103 pass attempts.
If this tune sounds familiar, you aren’t crazy. Mahomes threw zero interceptions on 100 pass attempts in last year’s playoffs while averaging 75 fewer passing yards per game in the postseason than he did during the regular season on five less pass attempts per game.
The formula should be no different on Super Bowl Sunday. Play good defense, protect the football and trust your best player to make enough big plays to get you over the hump.
I think we’ll see Mahomes keep his interception-less postseason streak alive in Super Bowl 58.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 Interceptions (-115)
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49ers vs. Chiefs: McCaffrey Receptions
Christian McCaffrey
Under 4.5 Receptions (+105)
By Blake Krass
I expect Deebo Samuel to cannibalize a lot of the targets that McCaffrey has gotten in the past. For example, McCaffrey tied his season high in receptions (seven) against the Packers in the Divisional Round when Samuel was out for the game. Several other games where McCaffrey had a high target share came when Samuel wasn't on the field.
McCaffrey’s receptions average, which is already too high for this prop, might be a bit inflated due to the time Samuel missed. McCaffrey should get a huge workload out of the backfield against this vulnerable Chiefs run defense, but on passing downs, expect Samuel and George Kittle to be the short-pass options for Brock Purdy.
Ultimately, McCaffrey only had more than five targets in six of his 18 games this season. In three of those six games, Samuel left the game early or missed it entirely. With Samuel expected to get a ton of snaps and touches, McCaffrey should stay at that mark of five targets or fewer, which gives you a great chance for him to go under his receptions total.
I am taking McCaffrey under 4.5 receptions, which is at plus-money across the board, and I would bet it down to +100.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Under 4.5 Receptions (+105)
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49ers vs. Chiefs: Rice Longest Reception
Rashee Rice
Longest Reception Over 21.5 (-105)
Rice has seen fewer than six targets only once in a game since Thanksgiving. His responsibility in this offense continued to grow throughout the season and has culminated in a role the Chiefs offense desperately needed fulfilled.
I think both of his main receiving props for this game are fairly lined at 6.5 receptions and 66.5 receiving yards. However, his ability after the catch combined with the attention Kelce will receive leads me to believe a big play is to be had.
Had his touchdown in the AFC Championship Game not been taken off of the board because of a questionable holding call that didn’t affect the play, Rice would have had a reception longer than 21.5 yards in four consecutive games.
Lastly, both Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Lions and Jayden Reed of the Packers both cleared this number versus the 49ers defense from the slot in their playoff matchups.
Pick: Rashee Rice Longest Reception Over 21.5 (-105)
49ers vs. Chiefs: Aiyuk Anytime TD
Brandon Aiyuk
Anytime Touchdown (+175)
By Sam Farley
With eight touchdowns in 18 games, you’re not looking at a wideout who is overly prolific, but I can’t help but feel +175 for Aiyuk to find the end zone is simply too big. That implies a 36.4% chance of Aiyuk scoring. My only calculations would have his chances slightly higher and eight TDs in 18 games would also indicate a number closer to 44%.
Yes, the Chiefs' pass defense is good, but Aiyuk is a target that Brock Purdy really trusts. Aiyuk can either be an option in the red zone or as a deep threat.
You’re getting a good price on a talented WR who can beat the defense in a variety of ways — take that +175 while you can.
Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Anytime Touchdown (+175)
49ers vs. Chiefs: Kelce 1H Yards
Travis Kelce
Over 32.5 1H Receiving Yards (-114)
By Cody Goggin
With most of Kelce’s production likely coming early, there are a couple of ways I would look to play this.
You could take the risk for a bigger payout with Kelce priced at +425 to be the first player to 20 or 40 receiving yards. However, I’m instead just looking at his first-half prop.
Kelce’s current first-half yardage total is listed at 32.5 yards. This is a mark that he has eclipsed in every game of the playoffs, and his streak actually dates back to Week 15 against New England.
He has actually had at least 34 yards in the first half of every Chiefs playoff game dating back to their last Super Bowl against the 49ers, which is 12 straight playoff games.
I think that we once again see this legend get involved early and put up over 32.5 yards in the first half of the Super Bowl.
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 32.5 1H Receiving Yards (-114)
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49ers vs. Chiefs: Kittle Receptions
George Kittle
Over 3.5 Receptions (-150)
By Sam Farley
It seems like 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan isn’t worried about Kittle's injury status for Sunday, so neither should we.
I'm on the over for his receptions total of 3.5. We’ve seen tight ends average 4.8 receptions per game against the Chiefs, even if they haven’t been able to do much damage in terms of yardage.
Kittle's covered this line in two of his last four games and he has a season average of 3.9 receptions per game. We can be confident in him hitting this given that he’s clearly a target that Brock Purdy likes and will try to involve.
Pick: George Kittle Over 3.5 Receptions (-150)
49ers vs. Chiefs: Pacheco Receptions
Isiah Pacheco
Over 2.5 Receptions (-167)
By Cody Goggin
I believe that this game lines up well for Pacheco to go over his modest receiving props. He should be on the field plenty and will be running routes while out there in place of McKinnon.
In the AFC Championship Game, Pacheco ran 27 routes, which was tied for the highest mark of his career, along with KC’s Week 17 matchup against the Bengals. Looking at Pacheco’s route participation data, it’s obvious that he has been more involved in the Chiefs’ passing game down the stretch.
San Francisco, with its heavy usage of zone on defense, causes teams to funnel a lot of targets to running backs. The 49ers tied for the fifth-most receptions allowed to running backs during the regular season with 90, which is an average of 5.29 per game.
If Mahomes is kept clean on standard dropbacks and Kansas City uses its screen game as much as it typically does, Pacheco will have ample opportunities to catch passes.
Depending on the book you are using and your level of risk tolerance, you can find Pacheco over 2.5 receptions at -167 or over 3.5 receptions at +155. I think that he has a chance to go over either of these numbers and have a strong day catching the ball out of the backfield.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 2.5 Receptions (-167)
49ers vs. Chiefs: Purdy INT
Brock Purdy
Over 0.5 Interceptions (-120)
It seems like the moment has been too big for Purdy the last three times the 49ers have stepped into the spotlight in high-pressure situations.
He threw four interceptions in a regular-season loss to the Baltimore Ravens and then clearly felt the heat early in both of his playoff starts. He spent the first half of both contests sailing the ball over the heads of open receivers and missing short-range targets before eventually settling down and leading the Niners to a pair of comeback wins.
Purdy has thrown 12 interceptions in his last 13 starts – quite frankly, he’s fortunate that number isn’t higher after sneaking by with just one interception in the Niners’ two playoff games. The Kansas City Chiefs defense will be the best defense Purdy has faced in over a month considering San Francisco has drawn matchups against the Washington Commanders, Lions and Packers in his last three outings dating back to New Year’s Eve.
This is Purdy's shot to prove all the naysayers wrong – myself included. Maybe Purdy finally extinguished the last of his playoff jitters in the Conference Round against Detroit. But if his performances in the Niners’ last three “big games” are any indication of what’s to come, I think we’re destined to see Purdy throw an interception in the Super Bowl.
Pick: Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Interceptions (-120)
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49ers vs. Chiefs: Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Valdes-Scantling has been the most maligned wide receiver in the NFL this season, but he has somehow regained the confidence of the coaching staff.
After playing just 20 and 17 snaps in the Wild Card Game and the Divisional Round, respectively, his playing time increased to 50 snaps in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Valdes-Scantling has made three key plays for the Chiefs during this run, and his performance in the AFC Championship Game against the Bengals a year ago still resonates with the coaching staff, Chiefs fans and, most importantly, Patrick Mahomes.
Valdes-Scantling has an 82% or better route participation in all three playoff games this season and he has seen exactly one-third of his snaps in the slot during this playoff run. His movement around the formation creates a sliver of optimism regarding his outlook in this game.
Charvarius Ward has only played 10 snaps as a slot defender this season, with 98.8% of his alignment on the outside of the formation. Ward has the fourth-highest coverage grade of all cornerbacks in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. Valdes-Scantling will at least have a chance at some favorable matchups that could result in another chunk play downfield.
Pick: Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
49ers vs. Chiefs: Deebo Rushing + Receiving Yards
Deebo Samuel
Over 75.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-130)
By Blake Krass
Because of Samuel’s unique usage, it can be tough to bet on his props. There are certain games he racks up his yardage through the air and others on the ground. That is why the best way to attack is by betting on his rushing + receiving yards, which currently stands anywhere between 75.5 and 80.5 yards, depending on the sportsbook.
Samuel has cleared those numbers in seven of nine postseason games under normal circumstances. He has technically played in 11 playoff games, but I'm excluding the game against the Packers where he left with an injury in the first half and last year’s NFC Championship Game where the 49ers were forced to play the second half with no quarterback.
Against the Lions, Samuel cleared his projected prop line just through the air with 89 receiving yards. If you look back at the 2021 postseason game against the Cowboys, he nearly cleared those numbers just on the ground with 72 rushing yards (he had 38 receiving yards as well). Notably for this matchup, in Super Bowl 54 against the Chiefs, Samuel had 39 receiving yards and 53 rushing yards as a rookie for a total of 92 yards.
In big games, Samuel's usage increases because Shanahan is willing to break out all of the stops. Samuel has also been banged up almost the entire season, but with a two-week layoff heading into this game, he should be totally healthy and ready for as many touches as Shanahan wants to give him.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Over 75.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-130)
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49ers vs. Chiefs: Watson Receptions
Justin Watson
Under 1.5 Receptions (-140)
Watson has been on the field more than Valdes-Scantling during the playoffs, but it is notable that Watson has seen his snaps decrease after playing 54 snaps against the Dolphins in the Wild Card Game.
It seems Valdes-Scantling has regained the upper hand as Watson has played only 58 total snaps over the last two games. Over those two weeks, Watson has earned only three targets in total, catching one pass for 16 yards. Valdes-Scantling has been targeted six times, catching four of those passes for 100 yards.
It’s difficult to feel confident in either heading into Super Bowl Sunday, but it is clear Valdes-Scantling has the upper hand between the two main boundary receivers for the Chiefs.
Pick: Justin Watson Under 1.5 Receptions (-140)
49ers vs. Chiefs: Jennings Receiving Yards
Jauan Jennings
Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
By Cody Goggin
Jennings’ play can best be described as inconsistent, but the important thing is that he has been on the field. His snap counts have been higher, and even though his output was lower against Detroit, he still saw 28 snaps, including 19 on the outside.
Jennings is a big-play threat, averaging 13.9 yards per reception this season and 12.3 for his career. While he likely won’t see a ton of work, he could easily go over his yardage total with just one catch.
With that in mind, I like Jennings to go over his total of 14.5 yards. He could do that with just one or two receptions, which wouldn’t be a miracle based on his playing time and the matchup.
