Since Super Bowl player props were released the Monday after the AFC and NFC Conference Championship Games, Sean Koerner has been making his Chiefs vs. Eagles picks.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with "The Oddsmaker," lines have moved and some bets have even been taken off the board entirely. Below, you will find all of Koerner's picks and the status of that pick, whether it's still available at his recommended number.
Make sure to follow Koerner in the Action App to get instant updates on when he adds bets.
Super Bowl Player Props
Miles Sanders
To Lead Game in Rushing Yards (+175; BetMGM)
Koerner's pick moved this number down to -105 at BetMGM. The best number available, as of Saturday at 4:15 p.m. ET is +120 at FanDuel. As Koerner says below, he would bet this down to +150.
Pick: Most Rushing Yards of Game — Miles Sanders +120 |
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My Super Bowl sim projects Sanders’ fair odds closer to +150 for this market. He offers a ton of upside because his usage has been capped this year due to the Eagles being involved in so many blowouts.
His rush attempt share among Eagles RBs was 79% when Philly trailed or was winning by fewer than seven points. It fell to 61% when the Eagles were up by at least seven. With the Eagles likely to be involved in a close game and this being the Super Bowl (no reason to limit Sanders’ usage), he should finish closer to his ceiling.
Sanders’ main competition on his own team will probably be Jalen Hurts, but he has outrushed Hurts in three straight games as the quarterback has opted to rush less, likely due to his left shoulder injury.
Sanders has outrushed Hurts in 13-of-17 games (76%) this season. I’m only giving Sanders a 62.5% chance of outrushing Hurts, but still show value on this prop.
Isiah Pacheco is Sanders’ main competition from the Chiefs side. Unlike Sanders, a potential close — or even trailing — game script will negatively impact Pacheco’s rushing production.
The Chiefs pass at the second-highest rate on early downs (in neutral situations), so a close game script means their passing volume will likely be higher than usual. Plus, Pacheco was more involved as a pass-catcher last week (career-high 5/59/0 receiving line), which only hurts his upside in this market.
A close game script also means Jerick McKinnon could rotate in at a higher rate, another factor that lowers Pacheco’s ceiling. And there is a chance Clyde Edwards-Helaire is activated – any snaps or touches he gets will only lower the chances of a K.C. player winning this bet.
I love getting Sanders at +175 because he probably doesn’t need to quite go off in order to win. The fact that we should see a close game raises his ceiling and lowers everyone else's.
It’s the perfect storm for a prop like this, and I would bet it down to my fair line of +150 since I believe there is still upside at that price.
You can find this prop under “Player Specials” on BetMGM’s Super Bowl game page.
| Super Bowl Rushing Leader | Projected |
|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 40.1% |
| Isiah Pacheco | 26.4% |
| Jalen Hurts | 23.1% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 3.7% |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2.9% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2.7% |
| Boston Scott | 1.1% |
Tommy Townsend
First Punt Over 46.5 Yards (-118; FanDuel)
This line moved to 48.5 when Koerner picked it.
Townsend has been phenomenal this season and has cleared this number on 39-of-61 punts (64%).
The Super Bowl will be played indoors at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., which is 1,152’ above sea level. It’s a neutral-to-positive situation where something like wind won’t help or hurt him, while the elevation can only help.
I’m factoring in regression in my sims and have Townsend closer to a 60% chance of clearing this on his first punt, with a median closer to 48.5.
This prop can be found on FanDuel on the game page under the “Special Teams” section.
Pick: Tommy Townsend First Punt Over 48.5 Yards |
Eagles and Chiefs
Will Both Teams Make a 33-Yard or Longer FG? — No (-110; DraftKings)
Editor's note, Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET: Hey, you can still bet this one!
Looking at both teams' actual game logs, you see Harrison Butker has made a 33-plus yarder in 7-of-15 games (47%) while Jake Elliott has made one in 6-of-18 (33%).
I have this close to a 64% chance of “No” hitting based on both kickers' stats this season. A lot of this has to do with the Eagles passing up field goals at the highest rate this year. One has to imagine they will be even more aggressive against the Chiefs.
Based on my sims, there’s about a 34% chance either the Chiefs or Eagles don’t make a field goal and this is an automatic winner. There’s around an 8% chance both make a field goal, but one team doesn’t have one 33 yards or longer.
This comes out to around a 42% chance both teams make at least a 33-yard FG, so there’s a 58% chance this bet hits.
This prop can be found on DraftKings in the Super Bowl Specials section under “Kick Props.”
Chiefs to Call First Timeout (-105; bet365)
Editor's note: As of 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, this bet is still available at both BetMGM and bet365.
It seems like this market would be similar to the coin toss, where it’s more of a 50/50 type of prop that comes down to luck, but that's not the case.
Some coaches are more likely to “waste” timeouts than others — those would be considered timeouts early in the half in order to stop play for either the offense or defense. This can be due to various reasons, like trying to prevent a delay of game penalty, not having the right personnel on the field, etc. Ideally, coaches would be able to save timeouts for the end of each half in order to stop the clock strategically.
On the season, the Chiefs have called the first timeout in 15-of-19 games (79%) — 12 of those first timeouts were of the “waste” variety by Andy Reid. Since he’s come into the league, Nick Sirianni has been one of the most efficient coaches when it comes to not wasting timeouts. This season, he’s only called the first timeout in 7-of-19 games (37%) — five of those have been of the “waste” variety.
Reid seems much more likely to waste a timeout before Sirianni and I would say there is a 60-65% chance Kansas City calls the first one. I like the value we are getting at -105 at bet365 or -120 at BetMGM and I would bet this to -135 or so.
To find this bet, go to the Chiefs vs. Eagles game page on BetMGM for "Novelty Props." You can bet this under "Team Props" on bet365 if you're in Colorado or Canada.
Who Will Catch a Pass First?
Isiah Pacheco (-130) vs. Miles Sanders (DraftKings)
Editor's note: This bet is up to -180 at DraftKings, as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Pacheco is coming off a career-best 5/59/0 receiving line in the AFC Championship game. He had a season-high 52% routes run rate, likely due to the Chiefs using more 2-3 TE sets because of the wide receiver injuries they sustained.
We could see similar usage for Pacheco in the Super Bowl. Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney typically see designed screen passes, but with one or two of them potentially sidelined, Pacheco could get those looks.
Checkdowns from Patrick Mahomes are also a possibility, given his ankle injury might impact his scrambling ability.
I’m projecting Pacheco closer to 1.8 receptions, which is in line with the market.
As for Sanders, he is primarily used in early down, run-heavy situations. His quarterback, Jalen Hurts, is more likely to scramble than check down to a running back, so I project Sanders closer to 0.9 receptions, which is also in line with the market.
It’s a bit tricky to have an exact projection for odds to catch the first pass, but based on their projected receptions, it is likely in the 67% range Pacheco gets one first.
I would set the fair line closer to -200, so we are getting quite a bit of value here. I would bet this to -160/-170.
This bet can be found under "Super Bowl Specials (Rec Props)" at DraftKings.
Which Team Will Have the Longest Gross Punt?
Chiefs (-155) vs. Eagles (DraftKings)
Editor's note: This prop is still available at -175 on DraftKings, as of Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET..
The Chiefs have a pretty big edge here as Tommy Townsend ranked second in the league with 50.4 yards per punt.
The Eagles might get Arryn Siposs back, but he only averaged 45.6 yards/punt, which ranked 26th. Siposs, who's been on injured reserve after suffering an ankle injury on Dec. 11 against the Giants, may also be rusty and less than 100%.
If Siposs is unable to go, it’ll be Brett Kern, who averaged 40.8 yards/punt in limited action. The only player with a lower yards per punt was Jake Elliott – he, of course, is Philly’s kicker, but he had to come in and relieve Siposs after the injury.
I’m getting the Chiefs around 70% to have the longest punt in the game. Fair price is closer to -235 – that’s factoring in the best-case scenario for the Eagles with Siposs.
I would bet this to -180 or so.
To find this prop, go to the game page on DraftKings. Click on “Game Props” and then the subcategory of “Punt Props.”
Jalen Hurts
Over 5.5 Consecutive Completions (-125; DraftKings)
Editor's note: This prop is still available as listed above on DraftKings, as of Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET..
Now this is a fun one.
Hurts has cleared this in 9-of-17 games, so it’s close to a breakeven bet (at worst). Based on my sims, I have this close to a 65% chance of hitting. I’m able to create a sample size of 10,000 as opposed to 17.
In Week 12 against the Titans, he had three streaks of seven consecutive completions. If those two extra streaks were counted as two separate games, his distribution would be nearly identical to what my sim is producing.
I think there is some sneaky value in this prop, and I would bet it up to -140.
To find this prop on DraftKings, go to the Super Bowl game page. Click "Super Bowl Specials" and then "Pass Props."
Jalen Hurts
First Rush Attempt Under 4.5 (+110; DraftKings)
Editor's note: This prop is still available at +105 on DraftKings, as of Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET.
For this prop, I looked at all the rush attempts Hurts had in the first quarter of this season.
His average rush went for 6.5 yards and his median was 3.5. The average is skewed due to the chances of him ripping off a 20-plus yard scramble. Of 36 rushes in the first quarter, only 16 went for at least five yards.
The best-case scenario for this wager would be a QB sneak on the first attempt. There’s a 56% chance he stays under – getting +110 odds here is nice.
To find this prop on DraftKings, click on "Rush/Rec props" and then the subcategory labeled "1st Rush."
Dallas Goedert
Longest Reception Over 18.5 (-105; FanDuel)
Editor's note: This bet moved to 19.5 at most sportsbooks after Koerner released the pick.
I’m projecting Goedert to clear this total around 61% of the time, which is notable since I’m a bit under for his other markets. For instance, I project closer to 4.3 receptions while the market is at 4.8 or so.
As for this longest reception prop, Goedert has cleared this 57% of the time this year. This is also a game where the Eagles could be more pass heavy, so I like the value we are getting. I would bet up to -130.
To locate this prop on FanDuel (via desktop), click "SBLVII" located on the left side of the page, and then "More Wagers." Then hit "Receiving Props."
Pick: Dallas Goedert Longest Reception Over 18.5 |
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Isiah Pacheco
Exactly 12 Rush Attempts (+900; BetMGM)
This one is purely based on math and worth a small play (0.2 units for me).
I project Pacheco for 11.7 rush attempts and there’s a 53% chance he finishes with 9-13 carries. There’s value on exactly 12 attempts since I have the fair line closer to +770.
This bet can be located under the "Player Specials" tab at BetMGM but isn't available in all states.
