The embers of the Conference Championship games have yet to be fully extinguished, but I’ve already found my best bet for Super Bowl 57: Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert to score a touchdown. His Anytime Touchdown odds are currently +200 at FanDuel.
Although the fifth-year TE has yet to emerge into the top tier of his position (among the likes Travis Kelces, George Kittles or Mark Andrews of the world), Goedert might finally be able to showcase why he’s on that same level. Especially since Jalen Hurts became his quarterback.
Stat Breakdown
Over the last two seasons, Hurts has looked for Goedert early and often, as evidenced by the TE’s combined 83 first-down catches since the start of the 2021-22 season. To put that in perspective, that’s more than his first three seasons combined (76). Hell, in 2022, he managed 40 first downs and 421 yards after catch in only 12 games. Those metrics were easily on pace to surpass WRs A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith had he played a full slate.
Matchup vs. Eagles
One of the main reasons why we want to bet Goedert in this game to score a touchdown is the matchup is the Kansas City Chiefs' defensive vulnerabilities.
Sure, the Chiefs offense may have the edge with Patrick Mahomes, but the defense could be the reason this game is over quickly. K.C.’s secondary has been getting burned for most of the season and playoffs, specifically to slot receivers and tight ends.
During the 2022 season, the Chiefs ranked 31st in touchdowns allowed to the slot (this includes WR, TE and RB when running routes over the middle).
Since coming off their bye week in Week 10, the Chiefs had given up at least one TD in the slot in all but two games. The two games they didn’t allow one were in Week 13 and the AFC Championship game, both to the Cincinnati Bengals.
As for tight ends, it’s not like the Chiefs were world-beaters stopping the position anyway. KC allowed nine touchdowns to TE this past season, which was seventh most in the NFL.
Betting Odds
The Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds might be the most important factor for why I’ve bet on Goedert to score a touchdown in Super Bowl 57. I tracked him at the Action App at +220, which was tied for his season-high for Anytime TD odds at DraftKings. The last time he was +220 was in Week 10 vs Washington, a game he finished with three catches and a touchdown despite getting hurt in the second half.
It’s also worth mentioning that despite playing in separate conferences, these two teams have faced each other fairly recently with a lot of the same personnel.
Back in Week 4 of the 2021 season, the Chiefs went into Lincoln Financial Field and beat the Eagles 42-30. Tyreek Hill was the star who finished with three touchdowns, but Goedert finished with five catches and a touchdown. For reference, he was +210 to score a touchdown in that game.
Goedert has since dropped down to +200 at FanDuel, which I’d still bet but is my cutoff price for projected value. However, as we get closer to the Super Bowl and more money pours in on player props, the TD value could continue to slip.
If you’re on the fence, tread carefully on waiting till closer to game day before locking it in as it may drop to +190 at this pace.
Pick: Dallas Goedert ATD (+200) |
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