I'm up to nine Super Bowl props for Chiefs vs. Eagles. To make it easy for everyone, here's a list of all of them.
The first three listed below are the most recent bets, which came on Wednesday afternoon. We have one more NFL game left this season, so enjoy!
Super Bowl Player Props
I've given out three picks on three days in the buildup to the Super Bowl. My next props will come on Sunday morning, so be sure to check out the Action App then.
Kareem Hunt Under 8.5 1Q Rushing Yards (-110)
Bet made on Wednesday, Feb. 5.
Despite Isiah Pacheco returning to action in Week 13, Kareem Hunt has remained the Chiefs' lead back.
However, the first quarter is typically when the Chiefs give Pacheco more work. He’s accounted for 43% of the first-quarter rush attempts to Hunt’s 34%. The Chiefs tend to use Hunt at a much higher rate later in the game once the opposing defense is a bit worn down or they're trying to protect a lead.
The first quarter is also when Xavier Worthy is more likely to get a rush attempt as he’s seen 11% of the team’s rush attempts in the first quarter since Week 13.
Since Week 13, Hunt has averaged 9.9 rush yards in the first quarter but has stayed under 8.5 yards in five of the seven games (71%). The two games he’s cleared it, he went way over with 34 and 18 yards.
The Eagles have a good run defense (second in DVOA) and are very run-heavy offensively. I'd expect that to especially be the case in the first quarter to bleed clock and limit the number of plays the Chiefs can run.
I’m projecting Hunt for 2.3 rush attempts and a median of 6.5 rush yds in the first quarter with around a 60% chance to stay under 8.5. If this goes down to 7.5, I have him as having a 55% chance of staying under that.
Matt Araiza Shortest Punt Over 39.5 yards (-108)
Bet made on Wednesday, Feb. 5.
Of Araiza's 61 punts this season, 55 have gone for 40 or more yards (90%). That's also skewed by a Week 15 game in Cleveland that saw rainy and windy conditions have three of his punts fail to clear 40 yards.
Araiza only had a punt of 39.5 or fewer yards in four of 19 games this season, meaning he has cashed this pick 79% of the time this season.
I'm thinking playing indoors helps raise Araiza's floor here, although it lowers his ceiling considering there won't be any wind to potentially help him. With that, we're betting the shortest punt instead of the longest.
I have Araiza's median at closer to 41.5 yards with around a 65% chance that his shortest punt is at least 40 yards.
I'd still play this at 40.5. I project him as having around a 58% chance of clearing that.
Punt To Result in a Touchback? Yes (+130)
Bet made on Wednesday, Feb. 5.
This game features the two punters with the highest touchback rate in the league:
- Matt Araiza 17% (first)
- Braden Mann 14% (second)
Touchback rate tends to regress heavily toward the league average of 8%, so I’m not expecting them to be anywhere near these rates going forward.
Two of the more predictive underlying factors to touchback rate are how often the punter kicks out of bounds and how often their opponents call for a fair catch. Both punters are extreme in at least one of those stats.
Araiza has yet to kick a single punt out of bounds this season and is the only punter with a rate of 0% (league average of 10%). Any time a punter punts it out of bounds, in theory it can’t be a touchback so any time he's punting, it’s staying in bounds. Therefore, it has a chance to result in a touchback, so his high touchback rate should be fairly sticky.
Braden Mann has the second-lowest fair catch rate. Just 14% of his punts have resulted in a fair catch and the league average is 27%, so he tends to have a high percentage of punts that get downed by his own team (18% rate, second highest in the league). That means he’s going to have a higher rate of punts downed inside the 10 or resulting in a touchback.
I’m projecting this right around a true 50/50 coin flip, and I think the +130 is sneaky here because I may be regressing their expected touchback rates too much.
Saquon Barkley Most Rush Attempts (-350)
Bet made on Tuesday, Feb. 4.
Saquon Barkley is a massive favorite in this market, but I think the price should be much higher.
Barkley's rush attempts prop is around 21.5 right now. The next closest is Kareem Hunt at 11.5, Jalen Hurts at 9.5 then Patrick Mahomes and Isiah Pacheco at six. The distribution of these props is pretty tight, unlike a yardage prop that could see a player go for 50+ yards and make a huge difference. A player can only get one rush attempt on any given play, though.
In my Super Bowl simulation, I'm showing around a 96% chance that Barkley has the most rush attempts in this game. The actual odds should be a bit lower considering there's a chance he gets injured and we don't know when that would be in the game. Also, there could be a perfect game script here for Kareem Hunt where the Chiefs take an early lead and he gets 17 or more carries while the Eagles are forced into a pass-heavy script.
I think a fair projection would be closer to 85%, which comes out to -565 for Barkley in this market.
Nolan Smith To Get First Sack (+1600; 0.2 units)
Bet made on Tuesday, Feb. 4.
Nolan Smith was the Eagles' first-round pick in 2023 and didn't do much as a rookie, but he started to break out toward the end of his second season. Since Week 15, Smith has led the Eagles in pressures with 23. He has had a sack in each of the Eagles' first three playoff games, and a sack in this game would make him the first player to have a sack in four playoff games in the same postseason.
Smith might be going against Chiefs RT Jawaan Taylor here, and Taylor has allowed a team-high 41 pressures this season. It's a good spot for him.
I have Smith tied for the second-highest sack projection in this game and show a fair price for him getting the first sack as closer to +850. That means we're getting a ton of value here at +1600.
No Player To Rush for 100 Yards (+210; 0.75 units)
Bet made on Tuesday, Feb. 4.
Obviously, Saquon Barkley is the biggest threat to this prop. I'm in line with his rushing yards total around 110.5, so I have him as having about a 58% chance (or -140) to clear 100 yards.
If he stays under, though, who the hell else is going to run for triple-digit yards? Jalen Hurts hasn't run for 100 yards since Week 12 in 2022, while Kareem Hunt might need 30 carries to get to 100 yards. I'm showing about a 5% chance that a player outside of Barkley clears 100 rushing yards.
It's important to realize that some of the simulations I've run are when Barkley clears 100 yards himself, which is 50% of the time, and there are times when two players run for 100+ yards.
When factoring everything in, I'm getting about a 39% chance that we don't have a player run for 100 yards, which is a fair price of +155. That means we're getting decent value here at +210.
Drue Tranquill Under 7.5 Tackles + Assists (+110)
Bet made on Wednesday, Jan. 29.
Tranquill has only cleared this number in four of 18 (22%) games this season, but he has been trending upward by clearing it in two of the last three.
The Eagles are a good matchup for opposing linebackers to get tackles since they run the ball at such a high rate. Saquon Barkley, though, has a wider range of outcomes on his rush attempts as to which players will be in on his tackles.
However, that's still not enough for me to get Tranquill's projection up to about eight.
Tranquill isn't a linebacker who plays every snap, as he's typically in on about 75% of defensive snaps. Leo Chenel tends to check in for him on third downs. Considering the Eagles run the fifth-most plays in the NFL, that could mean a slight hit to Tranquill's playing time here.
Either way, I'm projecting Tranquill for closer to 7.2 tackles + assists with a 55% chance to stay under 7.5, but we are getting plus money here.
Noah Gray Under 1.5 Receptions (-125)
Bet made on Wednesday, Jan. 29.
We've talked on our podcasts about how Noah Gray's playing time has taken a bit of a hit since Hollywood Brown made his Chiefs debut in Week 16. Gray was averaging a routes run rate around 45% before then, but it's gone down to 37% since Brown became a factor.
Gray's target rate has also taken a hit, going from 16% without Brown active to 9% since Week 16.
There are other factors that lead me toward this pick.
Patrick Mahomes is scrambling at a higher rate than usual, which is usually the case for him in the playoffs. Not only will that lead to fewer pass attempts, but Gray's targets typically aren't Mahomes' first read. That means if Mahomes is scrambling if his first couple reads aren't open, it's less likely for Gray to get a target.
The Eagles are also a run-heavy team that can bleed to clock and limit opponents' overall play volume. They've allowed the second-fewest plays per game in the NFL this season. A counting stat like receptions will be impacted by that more than yards.
Lastly, Gray could be due for some slight catch regression. He's caught 82% of targets this season, but his expected catch rate is closer to 76%, which is right around his career rate.
I'm projecting Gray for around a 61% chance of staying under 1.5 receptions.
Oren Burks Most Tackles + Assists (+320)
Bet made on Wednesday, Jan. 29.
Burks has filled in for the injured Nakobe Dean. There was potential that Jeremiah Trotter Jr. would be mixed in, but Burks has averaged around a 95% snap rate in the Eagles' two games without Dean. I'd expect that to continue in the Super Bowl.
Zack Baun should be the clear favorite in this market, and he is at +175. I'm projecting him for 9.7 tackles with most sportsbooks offering his tackles prop at 10.5.
Burks shouldn't be too far behind, though, considering I'm projecting him for 9.2 tackles.
I think a lot of the value is coming from Tranquill being third on the board at +350. He has upside, but I'm showing he should be closer to +1200 in this market. Nick Bolton should be third around +450.
So, after running my simulation with all of the tackle projections, I have fair odds for Burks in this market at +250.
