Everyone has a Super Bowl prediction for 49ers vs Chiefs in Sunday's upcoming matchup and our two of our betting experts, but not everyone is able to see the field clearly enough to lay out exactly how they think 49ers vs Chiefs will go on Sunday.
Stuckey and Chris Raybon, hopped on The Action Network Podcast to give out their six picks.
While Raybon is eyeing a pick on Chiefs against the spread for his first pick, Stuckey's first bet is a first half pick on the 49ers. He broke down his thought process behind the bet in great detail, including how he thinks Super Bowl 58 will play out and why his bet ties into Raybon's Chiefs prediction.
Check out his analysis below from the Action Network pod and watch the full video below for all six of their picks.
Super Bowl Prediction, Bet for 49ers vs Chiefs
Here's how our betting expert sees 49ers vs Chiefs playing out in his Super Bowl prediction:
STUCKEY: The Chiefs run defense is legitimately bad. The 49ers have the best run offense in the NFL and have Kyle Shanahan with two weeks to prepare, and the Chiefs defense is legitimately one of the worst in the NFL defending play-action passing. So I think the 49ers will have a ton of success early on. And it's not just running the ball, which I think they'll have success doing, but I think they'll have a great script, I think they'll have some great play-action passing, I think they'll have some trick plays with Deebo Samuel and I don't think the stage will be too big for Purdy early on.
The Chiefs offense made some changes. They've cut off all the fat and anything that was holding them back. They're focusing on three guys. What the 49ers do is play a lot of Quarters and Cover 3; they're kind of similar to the Texans and Demeco Ryans or Robert Saleh and the Jets in terms of coverage percentages. (We saw what Mahomes did in 2022 against Ryans' defense putting up 44 points —30 in the second half.)
Zoning Mahomes is not a great option, but I think that's when the 49ers defense is at its best. Chase Young has to show up here to take advantage of the Chiefs tackles.
People talk about the adjustments Steve Wilks made in the NFC Championship game, but the only thing he did was play more man coverage. The 49ers are always going to have a four-man front. Their linebackers, who are really good, are always going to be a little back, which makes them more vulnerable to the run but they can make some plays elsewhere. But that's their only adjustment.
So what can happen in the second half of this game? You have Steve Spagnuolo who can make significantly better adjustments schematically than Wilks. One of the more interesting storylines is "Will Spagnuolo blitz?" I don't think he will as much as he's done before because Purdy's been great against the blitz.
Whatever happens, Spagnuolo will have time to adjust and in the second half make his adjustments. This is a Chiefs defense that has allowed fewer than four points over their last eight games in the second half on average.
If you've got a big kick at the end of this game, you're going to trust Harrison Butker over Jake Moody every day of the week, twice on Sunday. Then you have Mahomes, one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. If he has to come back, if he needs to have a late drive, you would obviously trust Mahomes in the fourth quarter coming from behind than Purdy who is extremely inexperienced.
All three of those factors — special teams, defensive adjustments, Mahomes in the fourth quarter — is a major advantage to the Chiefs over the full game. But I think the 49ers, from a numbers perspective, show a little value in the first half. They don't have to worry about all those things in the first half.
I think they're going to score early, their script is going to be great — they had one of the best first quarter offenses in the NFL all season — and they're going to be able to run it, but the Chiefs will be able to adjust.
I like the 49ers first half moneyline and I'll be looking for a chance to bet the Chiefs live if they go down.
