In honor of the biggest betting day of the year, I've decided to highlight my favorite Super Bowl prop bet.
And if you're hungry for more after this, check out my Super Bowl Prop Betting Calculator, which you can use to calculate exact edges on more than 50 player props.
Koerner's Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes Under 30.5 Rush Yards (+105)
I've long believed that Mahomes has underachieved as a runner.
We've seen only his upside with the 53 rushing yards he's posted in back-to-back games. Before that two-game stretch, Mahomes had rushed for more than 30 yards in only five of his 34 career starts (a 14.7% rate). So now after eclipsing that mark in two straight games to bring his career rate up to still only 19.4%, we should consider this his median?
This line is simply an overreaction, and we should expect Mahomes to have a tougher time getting explosive runs against the 49ers.
I did give him a considerable boost in expected rush attempts and expected yards per carry before running my simulations. And to his credit, he looks 100% recovered from the significant knee injury he suffered midseason, so I made sure that wouldn't influence my sims data too heavily. I also added the chances of kneel downs at the end of the game by factoring in the Chiefs' chances of winning and how that correlates to one to four (-1 yard rush) potential attempts.
After this intense calculation, I arrived at a 60.2% chance he finished with fewer than 30 rushing yards.
