The Super Bowl is a prop betting bonanza, and no one takes better advantage of the action than our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
He's tracking the 2022 Super Bowl prop bets market in the run-up to Bengals-Rams, comparing his projections to the odds in order to make picks as he identifies value on a rolling basis.
Find his top bets below, featuring a Cooper Kupp over, a Joe Burrow under and — you guessed it — a punting prop, plus a whole lot more.
| More From Sean Koerner |
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Super Bowl Prop Bets
Sony Michel Under 6.5 Receiving Yards
Michel has been held under this line in four straight games, despite averaging around a 50% routes run rate per game. With Darrell Henderson active, we could see Michel’s usage as a pass-catch take a hit. I was able to grab this at -124 at FanDuel, but would project it closer to -150.
Bet to: -135
Cooper Kupp Longest Reception: Over 28.5 Yards
I was a little surprised to find value on a Cooper Kupp over. I would guess that sportsbooks are taking the majority of money bet on his props on the overs (as expected), but there's still quite a bit of value on this one.
First, I'm projecting Kupp for closer to 8.0 receptions while books appear to be closer to 8.3-8.4 receptions. And based on my simulations, Kupp's median for "longest reception" is closer to 33.5 yards.
Here are my projected chances of him going over or under various yards in this range:
| Yards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 27.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| 28.5 | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| 29.5 | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| 30.5 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 31.5 | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| 32.5 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 33.5 | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| 34.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% |
Kupp isn't necessarily a deep threat (8.4 aDot), but he is phenomenal after the catch (6.2 YAC/R). His massive volume also gives him multiple shots to clear this number, which he's done in 15-of-20 (75%) games this season with a median of 36.
Bet to: 30.5
Joe Burrow Under 12.5 Rush Yards (-114)
We know that Burrow can scramble when needed, but he hasn’t rushed much this year coming off his ACL tear last season. The Year 2 quarterback has a median of six rushing yards a game this season and has only cleared this number in three of 19 games (an 84% hit rate for the under). The Rams play a ton of zone, making it tougher for a QB to scramble and making me like this under even more. I have Burrow going under this 65% of the time.
Bet to: 11.5
Ja’Marr Chase More Rush Yards Than Cooper Kupp (-160)
The Bengals have been giving Chase rush attempts in each of their three playoff games and are always trying to find ways to get the ball in his hands. Cooper Kupp has an easy enough time getting targets that the Rams don’t really give him rush attempts, making this line appealing. Kupp only has two rush attempts with more than two yards all season, whereas Chase has seven — with four of those coming in the playoffs. I have this at a 70% chance of hitting.
Bet to: -180
Joe Mixon First Rush Attempt Under 3.5 yards (-120)
I always love these props for the Super Bowl. Most running backs average four-plus rushing yards per attempt — that’s skewed by longer runs, but the median is closer to three or 3.5 yards. For this prop, I have Mixon going under 3.5 yards on his first rush attempt 60% of the time.
His first attempt won’t fool the Rams defense, which is ranked fifth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Or it might even be a second- or third-and-short situation where he just needs yard. There are a lot of paths to winning this.
Bet to: -135
Any Player To Rush For 100+ Yards? No (-225)
This Super Bowl involves two very good passing attacks that have struggled to rush the ball lately. My simulations only give Joe Mixon and Cam Akers around a 12% chance each of going over 100 yards. Mixon has topped 100 yards in three games this season — all three of those performances came in games where the Bengals either won by 20+ points or faced a bottom-five run defense. The Rams defense ranks fifth in DVOA against the run.
Neither QB has a chance of hitting 100 rush yards and the only way backups Samaje Perine or Sony Michel have a shot at this would be if Mixon or Akers go down — it’s very unlikely anyone would be able to clear 100 yards in less than a full game.
I’m giving this around a 78% chance of hitting and a fair line for this should be closer to -350.
Bet to: -275
Shortest Field Goal Made Over 27.5 Yards (-110)
Obviously if either kicker gets a field goal inside 27 yards, this prop is toast. That’s why we would want to find the chances of either kicker seeing an attempt inside 27 yards! Combined, 12.5% of Evan McPherson and Matt Gay’s attempts have been inside of 27 yards this season. Looking at the field-goals made market (under 3.5 is -140 at time of writing), it’s safe to say the most likely number of field goals made is three.
My simulations are giving this approximately a 60% chance of hitting. Double check with your specific book rules, but if no field goal is made this prop will be voided.
Bet to: -130
Kevin Huber Longest Punt Over 52.5 Yards
The Super Bowl is the only game all season we are blessed with punter props, so I always try to take advantage — that's why I created a simulator just for punter props and have found a pretty big edge on one.
Bengals punter Kevin Huber's median expectation for "longest punt" should be closer to 55.5 yards. I'm giving him about a 62% chance to clear 52.5 yards. The math checks out, as he has cleared 52.5 yards in 13-of-20 (65%) games this season.
Here are my projected chances of him going over or under various yards:
| Yards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 51.5 | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| 52.5 | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 53.5 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| 54.5 | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| 55.5 | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| 56.5 | 44.6% | 55.4% |
As you can see, every yard matters in this market, so it's critical to lock it in at 52.5 yards or better.
Bet to: 53.5
Which Team Will Call the First Timeout? Rams (-115)
Typically I ignore these types of props as you are essentially betting on a coin toss, but this prop offers a sneaky edge as the Rams should be closer to -150 to call the first timeout.
The NFL's Michael Lopez conducted an in-depth study on how coaches use their timeouts. And according to Lopez's findings, Sean McVay leads all head coaches with 2.9 unnecessary timeouts per game. If you've ever watched a Rams game, this makes sense, as McVay is very liberal in how he uses his timeouts.
I would also assume (in theory) that the first timeout called in every game is "unnecessary," so I did some digging to see if the Rams were the first team to call a timeout over the past few games. I was blown away to find out that they have called the first timeout in nine (!) straight games.
Considering McVay's use of "unnecessary" timeouts and the recent trend of the Rams being the first team to call a timeout in their games, I'm willing to back a prop I typically ignore.
Bet to: -130
