The Favorites Podcast has been winning listeners money all NFL season, and hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter hope Super Bowl props will be the cap on a profitable year.
The pair finished in the top 2% in the DraftKings Pro Football Pick'em National Championship, hitting more than 60% on the year in the process. The playoffs haven't been as successful yet, but Hunter dove deep into props to find value.
On this week's episode, Hunter offers 10 of his favorite prop bets and a bonus pick on the first quarter total. Millman offers his feedback for each pick, loving some and hating others. They then talk through the thought process for the props and potential correlations on the game.
The props conversation begins around the 15-minute mark. All prop bets are from DraftKings. Lines are always subject to movement. The odds listed are current as of recording time.
First Quarter Total: Under 10.5 (-150)
"There's no such thing as a lock, but it's the play," Hunter says.
Tom Brady has never led a touchdown drive in the first quarter in any of his previous nine Super Bowls. His team has managed a field goal just once. The under is 9-0 and only once has the total points been more than the 10.5 listed at DraftKings.
A nine-game sample size is hardly enough to call it a trend, but the circumstances in the Super Bowl aren't the same as the regular season.
"This is the biggest game in America," Hunter says. "I don't think people understand the pressure and high variance of the Super Bowl that is so unique. Fifty-four years, 54 games feels like a decent size sample for such a unique game."
That comment was about the game in general, not specifically Brady's slow starts. But Hunter is still siding with history on this one.
"Flukes might happen, but if you're playing the numbers and data, under is a good play."
Total Field Goals, First Half: Over 1.5 (-125)
Hunter is hoping offenses get a little tight in the red zone early. He notes neither is spectacular scoring touchdowns in the red zone anyway. The Bucs and Chiefs ranked 11th and 12th in red zone touchdown percentage in the regular season.
Either Team Converts 2-Point Conversion: Yes (+230)
"Two risky coaches in a game that's all about taking high-risk plays in a winner-take-all game."
Longest Touchdown: Over 45.5 yards (-114)
All it takes is one play for Scotty Miller (we'll get to him later), Tyreek Hill or Sammy Watkins to sneak behind the defense for a long touchdown. Going against aggressive defenses only helps.
Total Sacks: Over 4.5 (+110)
"I do not get this line at all," Hunter says. He makes the line closer to 5.5 sacks for the game, noting Brady's lack of mobility and Mahomes' tendency to hold onto the ball. Kansas City is without its starting left and right tackles.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing/Receiving Yards: Under 48.5 (+105)
Will Andy Reid put his trust into the rookie running back?
Highest Scoring Half: 2nd half (-112)
They're already on the first-quarter under, hoping teams open things up more in the second half.
Any Offensive Lineman to Score a Touchdown: Yes (+2000)
"I see both offenses doing something weird in the end zone," Hunter says. "Andy Reid loves illusions — guys moving in weird places and all of a sudden an offensive lineman pops open in the end zone."
At such long odds, this is obviously more of a fun prop than something you hitch your bankroll to.
Field Goal or Extra Point Hits Upright or Crossbar: Yes (+400)
This line opened at +500 and continues to drop.
Total Interceptions: Over 1.5 (+134)
Brady doesn't mind an arm punt as we saw against the Saints. With a banged up o-line, Mahomes could be taking more risks to make big plays in a rushed pocket.
Scott Miller Receiving Yards: Over 20.5 (-112)
Antonio Brown may not be a full-go. With the Chiefs defense paying close attention to Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and the other offensive weapons, Miller can sneak a big play and cover this with one catch.
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