We have a Super Bowl rematch from two years ago with Chiefs vs. Eagles. The spread is 1.5 again, but Kansas City is laying the points.
I'm going to need more time to make picks on the spread and total. This is an intriguing matchup, and it's not as easy as looking back to their last Super Bowl meeting.
For now, one player prop stood out immediately. Here's how I'm betting on Dallas Goedert, whose receiving yards prop has already risen.
Super Bowl Prop Picks: Dallas Goedert
This is kind of a recycled pick that I almost made heading into this past weekend. I looked hard at Dalton Kincaid’s lines before the game but ended up not betting on him. I didn’t feel like he was reliable enough, and I think we saw that in the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship Game.
Dallas Goedert is a tight end I can trust, and this is a matchup for a reliable tight end.
Goedert had seven catches for 85 yards against the Commanders on Sunday. In his previous three games, he had at least four catches and accumulated 56, 47 and 55 yards. That makes it four straight games that he went over his opening 45.5 line.
The Chiefs have allowed the most yards to opposing tight ends this season, and they’ve allowed some noteworthily productive performances to go against them this season.
Isaiah Likely had nine catches for 111 yards in the first game of the season. Mike Gesicki had 91, George Kittle 77, Brock Bowers had 10 catches for 180, and even Pat Freiermuth had seven for 60.
In the regular season, the Chiefs allowed a tight end to gain at least 45 receiving yards in 11 of 17 games. That’s basically a 65% hit rate to get what we need here.
I realized that a lot of those aforementioned tight ends caught at least six passes against the Chiefs, so we might circle back here and look at a receptions escalator for Goedert. I think there’s a world in which the Chiefs are playing with a lead and the Eagles go to Goedert for a lot of high-percentage looks in a trailing game script.
I bet this on Sunday night at 45.5 yards. On Monday morning, BetRivers and FanDuel are offering 46.5 with DraftKings not far behind at 47.5. Take the best number you can since this one is already as high as 49.5 at some shops.
My Pick: Dallas Goedert Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
