I was on "The Favorites" on Tuesday with Sean Koerner and found three more Super Bowl prop picks.
All three of my bets today can be found exclusively at bet365. I'm betting two unders and an over on field goals.
Let's get this shmoney!
Chiefs Over 1.5 Field Goals (-125)
The Chiefs were 22nd in red-zone offense (53.8%) and could struggle here against an Eagles defense that ranked fifth in the red zone (50%).
Also, specifically for this bet, Kansas City isn’t very aggressive on fourth down. The Chiefs went for it 17 times on fourth down during the season, which ranked 26th in the NFL. They only went for it twice in games Patrick Mahomes started this season in situations that were fourth-and-1 or more when in field goal range. Andy Reid tends to take the points.
It helps when you have a kicker like Harrison Butker, who’s 15-of-15 on field goals in the last two postseasons.
The. Eagles have allowed two or more field-goal attempts in each of their first three playoff games, as well.
The Chiefs kicked multiple field goals in 11 of their 18 games this season not including Week 18. Also, in eight matchups against Eagles defensive coordinator with Mahomes starting, the Chiefs have kicked at least two field goals seven times. Finally, the Chiefs have kicked multiple field goals in six of their last eight playoff games.
Combined Rushing Yards Under 286.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Joe Thuney was one of the best run-blocking guards in the NFL but has moved to left tackle as injuries piled up on the Chiefs offensive line. Since he moved there, Chiefs running backs are averaging 3.57 yards per carry.
Also, both teams have defended the run well. The Eagles have the No.2-ranked rush defense according to DVOA, and the Chiefs haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. The Chiefs run defense has also gone from 27th last season to ninth this year.
Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has also defended the run well the past two years. Last year, the 49ers ran the ball 31 times for 110 yards (3.55 yards per carry) and the Eagles had 32 totes for 115 yards (3.59 yards per carry) two years ago.
Eagles games have gone over this total 12 times in 19 games, but the Chiefs haven’t had a game with more than 286 rushing yards yet this season. Chiefs games are averaging 212.1 rushing yards with a high of 285.
Excluding Week 18, the Chiefs and Eagles have had a combined 12 of 38 (31.6%) games go over this total. I’m projecting 259.
Combined Passing Touchdowns Under 2.5 (+150)
All three Eagles playoff games have gone under this total, while the Chiefs’ win over the Texans did but the win over the Bills had three. In total, playoff games with these teams are averaging two passing touchdowns per game.
During the regular season, the Eagles defense gave up an average of 1.29 passing touchdowns per game (sixth fewest per game in the NFL), while Kansas City allowed 1.41 (12th fewest).
Looking to the quarterbacks, Mahomes had one or fewer passing touchdown in 10 of his 18 starts this season, while Jalen Hurts had one or fewer in 11 of 18. Hurts also didn’t have a three-touchdown game through the air this season.
Combined, half of these quarterbacks’ 36 starts have gone under 2.5 passing touchdowns. I’m projected the true probability of this happening at 44%, though, so I’d bet it to +130.
