We still have plenty of time to go before Super Bowl 54, but our experts are monitoring the betting markets to find the best edges in the lead-up to gameday.
You'll find three of their favorite prop picks for Chiefs vs. 49ers below.
Early Super Bowl Props & Picks: Chiefs vs. 49ers
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via various legal sportsbooks in NJ, PA, IN and WV.
Matthew Freedman: Damien Williams Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
I prefer unders with player props, but there's value on Williams' overs: The market is yet to appreciate how fully he has controlled the Chiefs backfield in the playoffs.
Over the past two games, Williams has had a snap rate of 90.9% while getting 29 of the backfield's 30 carries and 12 of its 14 targets.
In his 10 Chiefs games with a snap rate of at least 60%, Williams has had a median of 63 yards.
I'd bet the over up to 56.5 yards.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Sean Koerner: Damien Williams Over 11.5 Rush Attempts (-126)
FanDuel is currently offering this line and I don't expect it to last.
Last week I wrote up the aggressive idea of playing the over on Williams' rush attempts (12.5) and under on his rush yards (57.5). I explained how his expected volume was high, but his efficiency was being overrated by the market and highlighted some underlying reasons why. Sure enough, he finished with 45 yards on 17 carries.
Now I have him projected for 14 carries in the Super Bowl, and I'm showing a 74% chance that he goes over the 11.5 number.
Other sites are offering this market at 14.5, which offers quite a big middle opportunity. I have it at a 31% chance Williams finishes with exactly 12, 13 or 14 rush attempts, which would result in both bets hitting. Since the over is much more likely to hit, you should put more money on that specifically.
Here's how I would stake the two bets:
- Over 11.5 Rush Attempts (-126): 2.5 Units
- Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (-115): 0.5 Unit
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Chris Raybon: Demarcus Robinson Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Most of Robinson’s production came during a four-game stretch that Tyreek Hill missed. In those four outings, Robinson racked up 281 of his 484 yards (58.1%). But in the 14 games Robinson and Hill were both active, Robinson averaged a paltry 14.5 yards with a median of just 9. He failed to surpass even 13 yards in nine of those 14 contests (64.3%). And though he posted 31 yards in the AFC Championship Game, he logged a season-low 37% of the snaps.
Now he’s up against a suffocating 49ers pass defense that's allowed only 32% of WR yardage props to hit the over this season.
Robinson is averaging 7.9 yards per target on the year, and two targets is his median with Hill in the lineup. That equates to just fewer than 16 yards, so I’d feel good betting the under down to 16.5 at normal juice.
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ only.]
[Bet now at William Hill. NJ only.]
Mike Randle: Emmanuel Sanders Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The public tends to put too much emphasis on recent results, which is why I see value in the 49ers wide receiver props. In their 37-20 NFC Championship win over Green Bay, Jimmy Garoppolo attempted only six of eight passes for 77 yards.
Sanders was targeted once and failed to record a reception.
However, in the regular season, Sanders was the big-play receiver for their most important games. He was the overall WR1 in Week 14 with seven receptions, 157 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown and one passing touchdown. In Week 2, against Chicago’s standout cornerback Kyle Fuller, Sanders totaled a season-high 11 receptions for 98 receiving yards and a touchdown en route to the overall WR4 performance.
The positional dominance of tight end George Kittle and development of rookie wide receiver Deebo Samuel has reduced the attention on the 32-year-old veteran, bringing this receiver total very much into reach. The high over/under of 53.5 points also supports the likelihood of more passing yardage for San Francisco.
The Chiefs pass defense has been fantastic all season, but the 49ers will need a more even blend of run and pass production to win.
If you can find this over at 39.5, it would grade out as a 9-out-of-10 in our FantasyLabs Player Props Tool with our projection of 47.5 yards. This season, 9-rated props have hit at a 59% win rate. But even at 40.5, it would grade out as a 7, and such props have hit at a 52% win rate.
I would bet this up to -130.
