It's finally gameday! One more game until August (preseason football!) for us to make picks on.
You can check out all the Super Bowl props I have already bet, but I have two more picks before the Chiefs and Eagles kick off tonight. Let's get into it!
Most Passing/Receiving/Rushing Yards: Hurts/Worthy/Barkley (+4000; 0.1 units)
I've taken a few stabs at this market this season and hit on a couple in the 40-1 range, which is where I found my favorite play for the Super Bowl.
The only real "long shot" part of this bet is Jalen Hurts leading the game in passing yards. Mahomes is the favorite with good reason, but I like his under and can see this game playing out with a game script that forces Hurts to throw more than usual.
With that, having Xavier Worthy lead the game in receiving yards doesn't exactly correlate, so what kind of game would enable this bet to hit? Let's lay it out.
We'll be rooting for the Chiefs to get out to an early lead, ideally on a long pass or two to Worthy. That leads to a game that doesn't see Mahomes throw very much except to his most-reliable targets in Travis Kelce and Worthy. That has been a common pattern for the Chiefs since the end of the regular season.
That will set up Hurts to throw the ball more than usual while also hurting Saquon Barkley's rushing upside.
Speaking of Barkley, a lot would have to go "wrong" for him to not lead the game in rushing. In this scenario, he still will while rushing for way fewer yards than expected.
The Eagles have a top-heavy offense with three main pass catchers in A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Even though Hurts will rack up more passing yards than usual, I think the yardage would be split pretty evenly between that trio in this scenario.
I have fair odds of this pick at +2000, so we'll bet this long shot at double that.
Patrick Mahomes Under 255.5 Passing Yards (-115)
As I do every year, I put together my Super Bowl prop calculator, which lets me share the results of my player prop simulations to get exact odds for any yardage/number that you can compare to whatever odds are being offered.
The under on Patrick Mahomes' passing yards is one of the bigger edges in my tool, so I’m going to make it an official play.
I figured it would make sense to wait until the day of the game to take a Mahomes under, assuming most of the money will be on his over, especially in this market. He just doesn't pile up passing yards as he has in past years, though.
Part of why Mahomes' passing yards are down is because he simply doesn't throw the ball down the field that often. He only threw downfield 7% of the time this season, which was the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL and the lowest of his career. This season, 27% of pass attempts have been behind the line of scrimmage, which was the second-highest rate in the NFL and again the highest of his career.
So, 60% of Mahomes' passing yards came after the catch, which was the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Not only will this be a tougher matchup against an Eagles defense that ranks No. 1 in Overall DVOA and No. 2 against the pass, but they combat yards after the catch well. The Eagles allowed the second-fewest yards-after-catch average this season at just 4.9.
Also, Mahomes tends to scramble more in the playoffs. His scramble rate through two playoff games this year is three times higher than it was in the regular season. Anytime he pulls the ball down to run will take away from his passing stats and helps move the Chiefs down the field and keep the clock running. This also correlates if you think the Chiefs are going to win and play with a leading game script.
I'm projecting his median closer to 231.5 and around a 62% chance he stays under 252.5, which is what his market is at most sportsbooks.
