Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is the talk of the Super Bowl.
One of biggest stories of the NFL season, Barkley is the one big star in this game that we haven't previously seen on this stage.
Barkley ran for 2,005 yards in the regular season despite sitting out the final week, and he's added another 442 yards and five scores in the playoffs thus far. Philadelphia runs the ball as often as any team in football, and because of that success, books are posting outlandish lines for Barkley, be it rushing attempts, yards, longest rush or otherwise.
But are those Barkley props posted to match expectations or hopes? Are they median outcomes or continuing to bet on outliers? And if Barkley is unable to reach some of his typical production, are there other players who could find running room in this game — and thus provide value to bettors?
Sportsbooks have priced the Super Bowl rushing prop odds all wrong — here's how to bet them.
Super Bowl Picks: Rushing Bets
- Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Under 25.5 Yards (1 unit, -110, DraftKings)
- Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush Over 11.5 Yards (1 unit, -115, bet365)
- Mahomes 20+ Longest Rush (0.5 units, +300, bet365)
- Jalen Hurts Longest Rush Over 11.5 Yards (1 unit, -114, FanDuel)
- Hurts 20+ Longest Rush (0.25 units, +250, Caesars)
- Mobile QBs Special, Both Mahomes and Hurts 20+ Run (0.1 units, +1000, DraftKings)
- Mahomes Longest Rush of Game (0.5 units, +1100, ESPN Bet)
- Hurts Longest Rush of Game (0.5 units, +1000, BetRivers)
Kansas City's Run Defense Can Hold Up By Limiting Explosives
Philadelphia wants this to be a running game, but I think this could turn out to be a passing game.
The Chiefs run defense was fantastic this season. They finished seventh by DVOA and were fifth overall in the final four games (not counting a meaningless Week 18) after a midseason swoon.
Kansas City's run defense ranked top eight in yards per carry, yards per game and yards before contact allowed. And perhaps even more importantly, it ranked top three in yards after contact and explosive run rate allowed.
The Chiefs allowed just 70 yards per game to running backs in the regular season, third fewest in the NFL. They didn't allow a running back to top 60 yards until Week 13 and allowed just four such games in the regular season. Additionally, no runner topped 16 rushing attempts all year until Joe Mixon hit 18 in the playoffs.
It's probably not surprising that the Eagles allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, but did you know the Chiefs allowed the second fewest? Kansas City allowed just one 100-yard runner all season, and that was Lamar Jackson — not a running back — all the way back in the season opener. The Chiefs haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in their past 18 playoff games.
Just look at some of the lines the Chiefs gave up against presumed top running backs in the regular season:
- Derrick Henry: 13 carries, 45 yards
- Bijan Robinson: 16 carries, 31 yards
- Alvin Kamara: 11 carries, 26 yards
- James Cook: 9 carries, 20 yards
- Chuba Hubbard: 16 carries, 58 yards
- Joe Mixon: 14 carries, 57 yards
Do you see a theme? These runners are consistently averaging just two or three yards per carry — that's a win for the defense almost every single time — because they simply aren't breaking off long runs. That limits the number of carries and leaves the yardage total badly under expectation.
The Chiefs allowed only six runs all season longer than 25 yards!
Also, three of those six runs were scrambles by opposing quarterbacks, meaning they only surrendered three runs over 25 yards to a running back.
Kansas City simply isn't giving up big plays in the run game and I don't expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to let Philadelphia win this game running the football. The Chiefs will do everything they can to take away those explosive run plays and force Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to methodically go down the field or win in the pass game.
Barkley's prop lines for this game are absurd, effectively pricing him with expectations of around 22 carries for 113 yards and a longest run over 25 yards, plus a score. He's the first non-quarterback to be priced top two in Super Bowl MVP odds since 2003!
Barkley has 13 runs this season over 25 yards, but dig a little deeper. Ten of those 13 explosive runs came against just three opponents — the Giants, Rams and Commanders. A whopping 795 of Barkley's yards this season came against those three opponents, all terrible run defenses dominated by Barkley and Philadelphia's elite offensive line.
Those yards count! But that also means Barkley has only three runs over 25 yards against every other team in the NFL this season. He's gone under a longest rush of 25.5 in eight of the past 13 games — with all five overs coming against the Rams and Commanders.
Even in these huge Barkley games, he often ends up with something like 20 carries for 60 yards outside of those two or three huge runs. Take those explosive plays away, and the defense is winning in a big way.
There are any number of ways to fade Barkley more aggressively than median outcomes, in case those explosive runs aren't there — better ways than just unders on rushing attempts or yards.
But start by betting it directly: Saquon Barkley under 25.5 longest rush (-110, DraftKings).
Both Quarterbacks Could Break Off Long Runs as Scramblers
But it's not just Barkley who's wrongly priced as a runner in the market. Both quarterbacks are being undervalued and can really hurt the opposing defenses with their legs in this matchup.
Let's start with Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes has always been a dangerous runner in the playoffs, and he's saved his best for the Super Bowl. In four Super Bowls, Mahomes has rushed for 29, 33, 44 and 66 yards — an average of 43 yards per game!
Mahomes has a run of at least 11 yards in eight consecutive playoff games, including runs for 14 and 26 yards in the previous Eagles Super Bowl. And he's run more than ever this postseason, increasing his scramble rate by more than double from 5.7% in the regular season to 13.6% in the playoffs.
That could make Mahomes' rushing yardage line intriguing, but that prop has crossed 30 yards, which killed off the value, especially since the Eagles only allowed a quarterback to run for more than 20 yards four times all season — three of those being games against Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson. Add in the possibility of Mahomes losing yardage on kneels and it's just not worth it.
Longest run is the way, especially because Mahomes has increasingly used this as a weapon to attack Vic Fangio's defenses. Fangio plays heavy zone and with a dangerous attack like Kansas City's, sometimes that simply means no eyes left to watch the quarterback.
Mahomes is 8-0 against Fangio, but dig into his stats and you see a steady increase in running — with 54, 24 and 41 rushing yards his past three matchups. Mahomes has eight runs of double-digit yards in his past five games against Fangio, including at least one in every matchup.
He also has at least two such runs in all four of his Super Bowls, so we know he's using his legs as a weapon when it's all on the line. Mahomes has gone over this longest rushing prop of 11.5 yards in three of his four Super Bowls. In the one miss, he had runs of 10, 10 and 11, just barely going under.
I'm betting Mahomes to go over 11.5 for his longest rush (-115, bet365) and I'll also sprinkle on a 20+ run at +300. He's hit that in six of his past 12 playoff games and in three of his past five against Fangio, so that is badly mispriced.
The case for Hurts as a runner is much simpler.
Hurts should be healthier after two weeks off and is a big threat on both designed runs and as a scrambler, something he did much more successfully this season than in the past.
The Chiefs allowed the most quarterback scrambles this season of any NFL team, over three per game at 7.5 yards per carry. Kansas City didn't allow those huge explosive plays we talked about with Barkley, but the Chiefs did allow 41 runs of at least 10 yards — 17 of them (41%!) to quarterbacks.
Hurts had a run for double-digit yards in 13 of 18 games this season (72%) and has had at least one 11-yard run in 11 straight games, outside of two misses against Washington (apparently only Barkley gets long runs against the Commanders).
I'll also play Hurts to go over 11.5 yards for his longest rush (-114, FanDuel), and a 20+ run is worth a sprinkle as well (+250, Caesars). Hurts has hit that number in eight of 18 games this season (44%), including four of the past six.
How to Bet All Three Longest Rush Angles Together
If you want, you can bet on the longest rush by any quarterback in the Super Bowl to be over 16.5 yards at -135 at Caesars. That's a safer way to get both guys and just hope for one long run.
I prefer to play more aggressively, and there are a couple ways to do it.
DraftKings has a special prop called "Mobile QBs" for both Mahomes and Hurts to post a longest run of at least 20 yards. We're betting both of those anyways, so say thanks to DraftKings and place a bit of those bets on that Mobile QBs combo at +1000.
Even better, think about the big picture.
If Barkley doesn't get that huge explosive run and stays at 25 or below, and if Hurts and/or Mahomes hit 20 or above, we're in range for a quarterback posting the longest run of the game.
I'll bet both Mahomes to have the game's longest rush at +1100 (ESPN Bet) and Hurts to do the same at +1000 (BetRivers), giving us a combined bet with odds of +474.
Everyone's tuning in Sunday to watch Barkley run the football, but I think they're getting it all wrong. I'm watching for the Chiefs to stop Barkley's explosives and waiting for both quarterbacks to create a big play with their legs.
