Touchdown scorers are some of the most popular Super Bowl prop bets each year. Should you try to cash in with a longshot, or play it safe with players who have shorter odds?
These are the players our experts are picking to score during Super Bowl 55.
Patrick Mahomes First TD +2200 & Anytime TD +300
Raheem Palmer: The Chiefs have actually scored the first touchdown in 10 of their 18 games. Mahomes and Hill have each scored three of those 10 touchdowns.
It’s hard not to like Mahomes because he’s always a threat to score anytime the Chiefs are in the red zone. Flash back to last year in Super Bowl 54: Darwin Thompson was stopped at the 1-yard line on first down, and the very next play Mahomes scored on a keeper. With the absence of Fisher and Schwartz on the offensive line, we can assume that Mahomes will be under more pressure, meaning he’ll be making more plays with his legs.
I also don’t see him throwing deep much, and if this team methodically moves the ball down the field with less explosive plays, the Chiefs may find themselves in a similar situation to last year where they have the ball inside the 5-yard line with a chance to score. With the Chiefs not having a true goal-line back, Mahomes typically gets touches.
BetMGM is offering the best odds on him to score first (+2200) and anytime (+300) as of Saturday.
First TD: Ronald Jones +1800; Rob Gronkowski +1800
Collin Wilson: Andy Reid won seven coin tosses and elected to defer in every single instance during the 2020 season. In 2019, the Chiefs won 10 tosses and elected to defer in each instance.
If Kansas City wins the coin toss, it is a safe bet that Tampa will get the ball first. It has been a different story with Bruce Arians, who started the season deferring every coin flip. That all changed after Christmas, when the Bucs won the coin tosses against the Falcons and Lions and elected to receive.
Is it possible Arians wants Brady and the offense on the field first? Tampa Bay has not won a toss in the playoffs, but the Bucs have scored on their first drive in 2-of-3 playoff games. If there's a high probability that the Bucs will get the ball first, props should be associated with that chance.
No Tampa Bay player has more red zone passing targets than Evans at 24, with Gronkowski at 22 and Cameron Bate at just six. From a rushing perspective, Jones tallied 36 attempts to Fournette's 27, but do not count out Brady, who has 11 rushing attempts himself.
With a similar number of targets, the Gronkowski price should be closer to Evans' price, but we will take the value on +1800 at BetMGM. As for the rushing aspect, Jones has seen 46% of attempts in the red zone, giving plenty of value to his +1800 at DraftKings.
Rob Gronkowski Anytime Touchdown +220
Raheem Palmer: Who on this team does Brady trust more than Gronkowski?
With Brate coming into this game with a questionable tag, the opportunity is there for Gronkowski to receive some of the targets that Brate has been getting in the red zone the last few weeks. Given Brady and Gronk’s rapport, this feels mispriced.
I'll take a shot here with FanDuel offering +220 as of Saturday.
Any Offensive Lineman to Score a Touchdown: Yes +2000
The Favorites Pod:"I see both offenses doing something weird in the end zone," pro bettor Simon Hunter said on The Favorites Podcast. "Andy Reid loves illusions — guys moving in weird places and all of a sudden an offensive lineman pops open in the end zone."
At such long odds, this is obviously more of a fun prop than something you hitch your bankroll to.
