There is plenty of value to be had betting NFL props, and I've found some on a couple Super Bowl touchdown prop bets.
Let's run through two of my picks for Sunday's showdown between the Chiefs and 49ers, as well as the best way to tackle the anytime- and multi-touchdown scorer markets.
First Touchdown Scorer
PICK: Mecole Hardman 22-1
Hardman is by far the best value in this market. He's been eating into Demarcus Robinson's playing time over the past three games. In fact, Hardman out-snapped Robinson on passing plays 44% to 37% in the AFC Championship Game, and there's reason to believe that trend continues here against a stingy 49ers defense. Having playmakers like Hardman and Tyreek Hill on the field to start the game could give the 49ers fits.
I have the fair price for Hardman to be the first touchdown scorer at 15-1.
One sneaky factor that gives Hardman hidden value is the fact he may be the first player to touch the ball. He is Kansas City's main kickoff returner and has a 104-yard kickoff return for a touchdown under his belt already this season. Mitch Wishnowsky handles kickoffs for San Francisco, and his kicks have resulted in a 51% touchback rate — the seventh-lowest mark in the NFL.
It's likely Hardman is able to return the opening kickoff.
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Anytime- & Multi-Touchdown Scorers
I wasn't able to find any value in either of these markets as they're typically juiced up to the max — they'd likely offer more value on "no" to scoring a touchdown if books offered it.
More specifically, I've been urging people to avoid the multi-touchdown market because if a running back, wide receiver or and tight end scores two or more touchdowns in the Super Bowl, it would greatly increase their chances of winning game MVP. So if you like the chances of a player scoring multiple touchdowns, you're better off backing them in the MVP market.
To illustrate my point, here are a couple players who I feel would be likely to win Super Bowl MVP if they score two or more times, and their multi-touchdown odds vs. their MVP odds.
- Travis Kelce: +425 vs. +2000
- Deebo Samuel: +850 vs. +3300
To be clear, I'm not recommending you take either player to win MVP. But if you are going to bet either market, MVP would offer more value than multi-touchdown for this game.
Total Yardage of All Touchdowns
PICK: Over 104.5 Yards (-115)
I was able to create odds for every possible number in this market and included it in my Super Bowl Prop Calculator. It gave me a median of 112.5 yards with a 55% chance it goes over this number.
There are so many explosive players on both sides of this matchup that this over makes sense. And if there happens to be a special teams and/or defensive touchdown, it would significantly boost the chances of this going over.
