With the NFL 2023-24 regular season upon us, Action Network commissioned BettingExpert’s supercomputer "BETSiE" to forecast the outcome of the year ahead. We tasked the supercomputer with predicting how each division will play out as well as to calculate the outcome of the playoffs. This simulation gives us insights into what team has the most potential to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February.
How Does BETSiE Work?
Before we dive into the results, here’s a quick overview of how BettingExpert’s BETSiE works. BETSiE simulates the entire NFL season 100,000 times, predicting average scores and win-loss probabilities for each game. Each team is rated by expected points for and expected points against, based on previous season performance and anticipated progression and regression.
With this data, BETSiE gives us the most probable outcomes for each team’s regular season performance. Here’s what the supercomputer says we can expect for 2023-24.
2023-24 NFL Predictions
100,000 simulations of data has given us the following Win/Loss predictions for each of the 32 NFL teams. There may not be many surprises at the top of each NFL Division, but there are definitely some noteworthy talking points for the rest of the playoff picture.
Regular Season Divisional Breakdown
AFC East: Buffalo Bills Lead the Charge
The AFC East Division is set to witness a fiery showdown as the Buffalo Bills emerge as the frontrunners, projected to clinch the top spot with an estimated 10.3 wins against 6.7 losses. The Bills have won the AFC East the past three seasons, supplanting the New England Patriots’ previous 11-year win-streak. The supercomputer predicts a close fight for second place between the Dolphins and Jets.
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals Edge In-State Rivals
In the AFC North, the Cincinnati Bengals stand as BETSiE’s favorites to seize the division crown with 9.8 wins and 7.2 losses. The supercomputer promises a close division, though, with the Browns and the Ravens predicted to win 9.5 and 9.4 games respectively. The Bengals have won the AFC North for the past 2 years. The health of Joe Burrow will likely be the deciding factor in the Bengals’ ability to capture the division crown for a third straight season.
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars Roar to Prominence
The supercomputer predicts an ‘easy’ AFC South win this season for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are predicted to win 9.4 games and lose 7.6. According to the supercomputer, the AFC South is among the NFL's weakest divisions, with no team other than the Jaguars predicted to win more than 7.2 wins (Tennessee Titans & Indianapolis Colts). But, as we all know, there are no easy wins in the NFL.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs Maintain Supremacy
In the AFC West, the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs show no signs of relinquishing their crown. BETSiE's projections place them atop the division with an astounding 10.8 wins against 6.2 losses. The Chargers are predicted to finish second with 9.2 wins. The supercomputer believes that the Broncos and the Raiders will swap places compared to last season where the Broncos finished last in the AFC West.
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles Soar Above
Since 2004, the NFC East Division title has been won by a different team every year. BETSiE believes that streak will end this year, as the supercomputer predicts that the Philadelphia Eagles will defend their NFC East crown in 2023-24. They are projected to win 10.9 wins against 6.1 losses. The Dallas Cowboys are not far behind in the predictions, coming in at 10 wins and 7 losses. The supercomputer estimates a rerun of last season with the Giants in third and the Commanders in fourth.
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings Out for Success
The Minnesota Vikings are poised for success in the NCF North. The Vikings are anticipated to finish the regular season with 8.9 wins against 8.1 losses. The Vikings also won the division last season ahead of the Lions in second. This season, BETSiE predicts close competition at the top, with the Lions predicted to win 8.7 games. The Green Bay Packers, without Aaron Rodgers, are set to finish last in the division, behind the Chicago Bears.
NFC South: New Orleans Saints Stage a Comeback
The NFC South Division promises a resurgence for the New Orleans Saints, who BETSiE has winning 8.9 games against 8.1 losses. The supercomputer predicts a significant fall from grace for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, estimating them only to win 6.5 games and finish last in the division. With Tom Brady retiring for good, the Buccaneers have turned to Baker Mayfield as the starting QB.
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers Aim High
In the NFC West, the San Francisco 49ers stand as BETSiE’s frontrunners, projected to secure the division crown with 10.2 wins against 6.8 losses. The supercomputer expects the NFC West to pan out the same way this season as it did last year, with the Seahawks in second place, ahead of the Rams in third and the Cardinals in fourth. Alongside the AFC South, the supercomputer predicts this division to be the weakest in the NFL.
Playoff Predictions:
The supercomputer's analysis reveals that the Philadelphia Eagles are the frontrunners for winning the Super Bowl, boasting a 16.6% chance of claiming the Lombardi Trophy. Following closely are the Chiefs, with an estimated 11.3% likelihood of victory. The Buffalo Bills secure the third spot with a 9% probability, closely trailed by the 49ers at an 8.9% chance of emerging as champions.
Based on these numbers, the supercomputer indicates we are likely to see a rematch of last year's Super Bowl, featuring the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Statistically, Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers is the second most likely outcome for a Super Bowl LVIII matchup.
Here's a look at the entire BETSiE simulation:How to Bet on NFL Games in 2023-24
Now that the BETSiE supercomputer has spoken, it's time to decide if you'll heed its outcomes, or trust your own gut. Football fans from across the country will be able to wager on the NFL season utilizing premier sportsbooks such as FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and many more. Be sure to read our sportsbook reviews and take advantage of Action Network's exclusive partnerships for new user promo codes!
You can also stay up to date on everything NFL betting related this season with Action Network news, tips, and wager insights.
