Buccaneers vs Cardinals Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-105 | 40.5 | -330 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-115 | 40.5 | +265 |
The NFL thought they were gifting fans an electric primetime showdown on Christmas between two of the best offenses from a year ago. Instead, we’re getting a lump of coal as we make our Buccaneers vs Cardinals pick on Christmas.
Arizona’s been a dumpster fire all year. The Cardinals are ranked 30th in total DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and are now down to their third-string quarterback. Meanwhile, a Tampa Bay offense that ranked second a year ago in points per game (30.1) is averaging a dismal 17.6 points per game this season. That’s the fifth-worst mark in the NFL.
Sportsbooks have had the Buccaneers favored between seven to eight points all week, but it’s hard to feel comfortable picking either team in this spot. Tampa Bay has been horrific in primetime during the Tom Brady era, going 2-11 against the spread. The Bucs have also failed to cover by a league-worst 6.3 points per game this season and are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
On the flip side, are you really willing to back Trace freakin’ McSorley?
So, with all that said, where can we find a betting edge pick when the time comes to sit back, relax and enjoy some late-night Christmas snacks?
Find our Buccaneers vs Cardinals pick and prediction for Sunday Night Football on Christmas below.
Buccaneers vs Cardinals Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Buccaneers and Cardinals match up statistically:
Buccaneers vs. Cardinals DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 17 | 27 | |
| Pass DVOA | 12 | 20 | |
| Rush DVOA | 30 | 29 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 30 | 9 | |
| Pass DVOA | 29 | 10 | |
| Rush DVOA | 28 | 12 | |
This isn’t a typical Tom Brady season by any stretch of the imagination. His 50.5 QBR is by far the worst of his career, and he’d be on pace to throw his fewest touchdowns as well if not for the expanded 17-game schedule. Despite those struggles, Brady has still been slinging it with the best of them as his 278.4 passing yards per game rank third in the NFL.
While this has clearly been a difficult season for the future Hall of Famer, he must be on the nice list as the football gods have gifted him an Arizona defense ripe for the taking.
The Cardinals are flat-out atrocious defending the pass at home. They allow 195.1 yards per game on the road, but that number balloons to 280.0 at State Farm Stadium. That’s the second-worst mark in the league, trailing only the Detroit Lions.
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The Buccaneers don’t rely on the big play in the passing game but rather accumulate yards on sheer volume. They haven’t shied away from relying on Brady’s 45-year-old right arm as he leads the league in completions (411) and attempts (623). That’s terrible news for an Arizona defense allowing the fourth-most catches (348) and sixth-most attempts (499) on the year.
At the same time, while Tampa Bay struggles gaining yards after the catch, this is a spot where Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and the rest of Brady’s weapons can do some major damage with the ball in their hands.
Arizona has surrendered a league-high 2,119 yards after the catch. That’s the most in the league by a healthy margin as it's 237 more than the next-closet team, the Minnesota Vikings. Even a modest increase in YAC by Tampa Bay’s skill players should significantly boost Brady's passing yards considering his sky-high volume of attempts and completions.
Buccaneers vs Cardinals Betting Picks
Nothing – and I mean nothing – has come easy for the Buccaneers this season. That ought to change against a Cardinals team in shambles, which is why approximately 90% of the money is on Tampa Bay to cover.
My gut tells me they will, too. However, the Bucs have been so atrocious against the spread this season, including going 1-10-1 over their last 12 games, that I simply don’t feel comfortable backing them to lay this many points.
What I do feel comfortable backing, however, is Brady to carve the Cardinals up through the air. The points haven’t been there for the Bucs’ offense, but as noted, the legendary quarterback nonetheless ranks third this season averaging 278.4 passing yards per game.
My main worry is that the Bucs turn to their ground game should they take a big lead, as expected. However, after seeing how they blew a 17-point lead a week ago against the Bengals, I suspect they’ll keep the pedal to the metal with Brady for a full 60 minutes.
