The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) and Dallas Cowboys (6-8) will face off on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on NBC and can be streamed on Peacock.
The Buccaneers are favored by 4 points, with the game total set at 48 points scored. The Buccaneers are -210 favorites to win outright, while the Cowboys are +165 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Cowboys vs Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -105 | 48 -110o / -110u | -210 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -115 | 48 -110o / -110u | +175 |
- Buccaneers vs. Cowboys spread: Buccaneers -4 (-105)
- Buccaneers vs. Cowboys over/under: 48 (-110o / -110u)
- Buccaneers vs. Cowboys moneyline: Buccaneers -210, Cowboys +175
- Buccaneers vs. Cowboys best bet: Buccaneers -4
My Buccaneers vs. Cowboys best bet is on the Bucs to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I like the Bucs -4 here. The Cowboys have been taking advantage of soft matchups over the past month, but don't enjoy any of the same edges against Tampa Bay.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the Buccaneers moneyline in favor of the spread.
Over/Under
I have no player on the total.
My Pick: Bucs -4 (to -5).
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys NFL Sunday Night Football Preview
All data is via FTN unless otherwise noted.
The vibes are trending upward for the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys, who are now winners of three of their last four straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) after a 30-14 win as a three-point underdog at Carolina — a game in which they reminded everyone that the Panthers are still, in fact, the Panthers and Bryce Young is still, in fact, Bryce Young.
Let that be a lesson for this week.
Taking over a field goal at home with a team that might be 4-0 over their last four if it was less good at blocking punts seems reasonable. But in handicapping exactly what they can carry over that will get them to the window against the Bucs, the issue that arises is the Cowboys are still the Cowboys, and Cooper Rush is still Cooper Rush.
Rush has been good at getting the Cowboys into the right looks and getting the ball out quickly to avoid pressure, but his performance must be kept in perspective.
- Over the last four games, the Cowboys have gone up against defenses ranked 25th (WAS), 27th (NYG), 29th (CIN) and 31st (CAR) in DVOA.
- Across the last two games, the Cowboys rushed for more yardage (367) than Rush netted passing (365).
- In the win at Washington, the Cowboys generated nearly the same amount of production on five kick returns (223 yards, two TDs) as Rush on 33 dropbacks (247 yards, two TDs).
- Before that stretch, Rush started against two top-five pass defenses (HOU, PHI), throwing for just 399 yards on 78 attempts (5.1 YPA). He preceded that with an even less efficient 4.3 YPA on 39 attempts across three appearances in relief of Dak Prescott.
Among 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Rush ranks 37th in Adjusted EPA/play (-0.087) and 41st in Completion Rate Over Expectation (-9.5%).
The Bucs defense is 18th in EPA per play overall (19th pass, sixth rush), but first overall and top two versus both the pass and run since their Week 11 bye.
The Bucs love to blitz, especially on third and fourth downs (42.0%, fourth-most). This is where Rush's limitations tend to show the most because he has little ability to create out of the pocket, and while his quick releases are good for avoiding sacks, they aren't really giving his team a chance to actually convert a new set of downs.
On third- and fourth-down blitzes, Rush's 39.3% Success Rate ranks 28th. Baker Mayfield, by the way, leads the league with a 62.3% Success Rate rate in those situations.
Rico Dowdle leads the league in rushing success rate (48.6%) and is probably the key to a Cowboys upset/cover. Dowdle has been such a revelation in a featured role over the last four games (21.5 carries, 119.5 yards, 5.7 YPC) that wasting carries on the ghost of Ezekiel Elliott and the mummified corpse of Dalvin Cook vaults near the top of the list of Mike McCarthy fireable offenses, for which there is staunch competition.
But Dowdle ate against some of the league's worst run defenses, and the Cowboys may not be able to feed him if they don't have answers on third down or if the Bucs offense keeps on humming.
Overall, the Bucs are fifth in offensive EPA/play (0.111) despite Chris Godwin missing half of the year and Mike Evans missing three games.
The Cowboys should be able to get pressure with Micah Parsons back in tow, but Mayfield has received excellent coaching these past two years from Dave Canales and now Liam Coen, and he is no longer a sieve when under duress.
Mayfield ranks first of 40 qualified passers with a 51.1% success rate against pressure this season. He’s also second in accuracy rate (73.3%), sixth in YPA (7.6) and ninth in EPA per dropback (-0.19) when pressured.
He has also turned into one of the league's better scramblers. Not to mention, Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke have made massive strides at tackle, helping the Bucs allow the third-lowest pressure rate (23.3%).
Mayfield is not immune to his usual helping of turnovers, however. He has the 10th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate from a clean pocket (3.8%).
The problem for the Cowboys is Rush has the fifth-highest (4.8%) himself. And whereas Mayfield makes up for it by throwing a TD 7.0% of the time, fourth-best, from a clean pocket, Rush has a clean-pocket TD rate of 2.7% (34th).
But what makes the Bucs offense a different beast is their newfound rushing attack, aka Bucky Irving. The Bucs went from dead last in 2023 in rushing yards per game (88.8), YPC (3.4) and rush success rate (32.0%) to fourth in yards (144.4), second in YPC (5.2) and first in success rate (43.3%) this season.
Irving averages a league-best 4.20 yards after contact. He has a long run of at least 43 yards in each of his three healthy games since the Week 10 bye and ranks sixth in rushing EPA (13.81) despite the 27th-most carries (152).
The Bucs score 2.63 points per drive offensively, fifth-best, and the Cowboys allow 2.35 points per drive defensively, fifth-worst. The Bucs are average on defense on the season (2.15, 18th) but have allowed just 1.40 points per drive since the bye, which would rank first over a full season.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are scoring just 1.56 points per drive in Rush's six starts, which would rank 28th over a full season. The Cowboys staying within one possession is not a given.
NFL teams have been trending toward devaluing smaller one-possession leads and opting to be more aggressive on fourth down and in going for two points to stretch leads to at least a touchdown, which is allowing short road favorites to have more success against the number.
Per our Action Labs data, road favorites laying -6 or fewer are 43-25-2 (63%) ATS this season and 86-59-7 (59%) since the start of last season.
My Pick: Bucs -4
Cowboys vs Buccaneers Betting Trends
NFL Weather
