Lions vs Buccaneers Prediction, Pick | NFL Playoffs Divisional Round
My Lions vs Buccaneers prediction is all about Chris Godwin. Odds for this NFL Divisional Round matchup have the Lions installed as 6-point favorites at most sportsbooks with an over/under of 50.
With a victory on Sunday at Ford Field, the Lions will make their first NFC Championship Game appearance since 1991. While many expected the Lions to at least get this far into the postseason, most did not envision the Bucs even making the playoffs — yet alone reaching the Divisional Round — but it was Tampa Bay who had a much easier walk in the park in the Wild Card Round with a rout over Philadelphia.
The Bucs have been a road darling all year with an NFL best 8-1 mark against the spread (ATS). Can they keep it going on the highway and play spoiler to all of Detroit's dreams? Let's take a closer look at this matchup in my Divisional Round betting preview and get into my Lions vs Buccaneers predictions.
Lions vs Buccaneers Pick & Prediction
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Lions vs Buccaneers Odds
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
Lions vs Buccaneers Preview
When the Lions Have the Ball
Detroit featured one of the league's best offenses this season under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, boasting top-10 rushing and passing units. Jared Goff has played much better throughout his career indoors, so he has to be thrilled at getting a second straight home game in the friendly confines.
From a DVOA perspective, Tampa finished with a top-10 rush defense, which makes sense in a Todd Bowles scheme. Those numbers get even better when you isolate its production when fully healthy since the Bucs are an older team that truly lacks depth. The Lions have too good of a rushing attack to get shut down, but their best method to move the ball will come through the air against a Tampa coverage group that has struggled at times.
Like most Bowles defenses, Tampa does an excellent job of covering backs, which is critical against Gibbs. However, they have really struggled against No. 1 receivers and in the slot. That should be music to the ears of Amon Ra St. Brown, who had 12 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting.
Bowles will undoubtedly come in with a complex blitz scheme in order to throw Goff off. His numbers have fallen off dramatically in the past against the blitz, so the pass protection is certainly something worth monitoring early on in the game.
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When the Bucs Have the Ball
Don't expect Tampa to have much success on the ground in this one. The Bucs couldn't efficiently run the ball all season, finishing 28th in Rush DVOA. That task will get even tougher against a Detroit defense that surprisingly finished first overall in that category.
Therefore, I'd expect offensive coordinator Dave Caneles to come out with a very pass-heavy game plan similar to last week against Philadelphia, where Baker Mayfield had a 75% neutral state pass rate. The Bucs have clear advantages on the outside with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin going up against Cam Sutton and Kindle Vildor.
Mayfield threw deep as much as any quarterback in the league this season, including in the first meeting with the Lions. The Bucs only mustered six points in a home loss, but Mayfield attempted 10 passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield. He simply had an off day, missing multiple wide open receivers, who took advantage of a few different complete coverage busts in the Detroit secondary.
The Lions' defense can generate pressure at an elite rate even if they struggle to convert those pressures into sacks. Historically, Mayfield has struggled under pressure, but he has fared much better in that department this season. Can Mayfield connect on the deep shots to his outstanding wide receiver corps? That will likely decide whether or not Tampa can stay in this game.
Lions vs Buccaneers Prediction
The regular season meeting between these two teams provides a very good blueprint for how this rematch should play out.
In that game, neither team could run the ball, as they combined for just 86 yards on 38 carries (2.3 yards per carry). I don't envision either team consistently churning out yards on the ground. Therefore, it comes down to which quarterback has a better game.
In the first meeting, it was Goff by a country mile. He finished 30/44 for 340 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Meanwhile, as I mentioned previously, Mayfield had an off day, finishing 19/37 for 205 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, leading to a rating of almost half of Goff's.
From a side perspective, I did not want to play the Bucs. This was not a good team all season and they benefited from playing in the worst division in the NFL and a sizable amount of good fortune. The Bucs did look fantastic last week, but that said more about the state of the Eagles than anything else.
That said, if this line gets to 7, I'd have to take Tampa from a pure numbers perspective.
When it comes to the total, it's over or nothing for me since I believe we will get two pass-heavy game plans on a fast track indoors without conditions. Plus, each offense has advantages on the outside when they do drop back to throw.
It is worth mentioning that Dan Campbell will certainly introduce variance into this game with his aggressive fourth down decisions. Meanwhile, Bowles historically has been one of the least aggressive coaches in the NFL. That alone could swing this game in Detroit's favor, as it did for Campbell against McVay last week.
However, with the increased variance, that certainly makes the Bucs more intriguing from a moneyline perspective. I'll also be looking to use those potential Campbell decisions to bet this game live. If the Lions fail to convert on one or two early fourth down attempts, I'll look to hop in on the live over.
While I haven't bet anything on the side or total just yet, I did bet a number of Chris Godwin props.
As I previously stated, I'm fairly confident the Tampa staff understands the assignment and will come out throwing early and often with an abundance of deep shots. As an underdog, they are also more likely to be playing from behind, which would lead to even more passing with a now healthier Mayfield against a Detroit defense that gave up the third-most passing yards to wide receivers in the regular season.
So, why have I targeted Godwin?
Well, I believe he's going to get ample advantageous opportunities to line up against Kindle Vildor, who allowed a whopping 22.8 yards per catch. To put that number into perspective, the next highest number allowed is 17.8 among 151 cornerbacks who played at least 100 coverage snaps. Godwin should eat him up.
There's a chance Detroit will use Cam Sutton to shadow Mike Evans, which would increase the snaps for Godwin on Vildor even more. But even if not, Godwin lines up out wide to the right more often than the left, which is where Vildor usually is if Sutton isn't shadowing. Plus, the Bucs have reduced Godwin's slot snaps in recent weeks, which is good news for his production since that is where Detroit has its best coverage options with Brian Branch and with the recent return of CJ Gardner Johnson.
Additionally, it doesn't hurt that tight end Cade Otton had a career best game in the Wild Card round, so the Lions' linebackers and safeties will have to be a bit more cognizant of the former Washington product.
It's also worth at least mentioning the head official in this game is Bill Vinovich, who swallows his whistle as much as any official in the league, which might reduce the hollow yards gained through pass interference.
I personally split my bet in three and will likely add some touchdown exposure:
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