The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) will face the Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) on NFL Monday Night Football tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on ESPN. The Chiefs are favored by 9 points and are -450 on the moneyline, while Tampa Bay is +350 to pull off the upset. The over/under total is 45.5 points scored.
Tonight, our experts are expecting a high-scoring and competitive game. While the Buccaneers are without wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, they showed a capable offense last week against the Falcons. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are the NFL's last undefeated team despite some underwhelming performances this season. Patrick Mahomes has only thrown 8 touchdowns in 7 games, but he does have 9 interceptions.
Get our expert Buccaneers vs. Chiefs predictions and Sunday Night Football picks.
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Odds
- Buccaneers-Chiefs Spread: Chiefs -9 (-110)
- Buccaneers-Chiefs Moneyline: Chiefs -450, Bucs +350
- Buccaneers-Chiefs Over/Under: 45.5 points scored
Buccaneers vs Chiefs Against the Spread Pick
By Billy Ward
Our NFL Luck Rankings have the Chiefs as the second-luckiest team in the NFL, with Tampa Bay slightly unlucky in 18th. A game with a big spread like this is a solid use case for those ratings.
Part of the Chiefs ranking is due to the fact that they aren't blowing out teams. Five of their seven wins have come in one-score games, and they have a point differential of just +50. For some context, the Lions had a +100 point differential entering Week 9 despite having one more loss.
One of the main reasons why this spread is so big is the injuries the Buccaneers have suffered on offense. They're missing both of their starting wide receivers in Chis Godwin and Mike Evans.
But still, they put up 26 points last week without both receivers, so the offense isn't totally lost. With the Chiefs failing to clear 28 points in any game this season, getting to 20 points should be enough for a Bucs cover.
The +9.5 line at FanDuel is half-point higher than anywhere else, so try to jump on that line if possible. While +9 isn't exactly a key number, I'll take the half-point where I can get it.
Pick: Buccaneers +9.5 (-110; bet to -120)
Monday Night Football Pick: Bucs-Chiefs Over/Under Bet
Contests involving the Bucs have averaged a combined 56 points per game this season, and they have played to the over in each of their last five games. I'm expecting this trend to continue on MNF considering it features the two best teams on third down offensively.
The Bucs and Chiefs are also very good when running play-action plays; they are tops in the league in success rate when incorporating a run fake on pass attempts. The Buccaneers defense ranks last in success rate defending play-action while the Chiefs rank 24th.
Tampa Bay's defense is blitzing at the league's third-highest rate in order to generate pressure, but it is just league average in pressure rate.
Blitzing Patrick Mahomes has historically been a recipe for disaster, and this will undoubtedly be one of his best statistical games of the season for this reason.
Considering the Bucs' blitz rate, inability to defend play-action, and their poor ranking in yards per carry against (28th) to opposing running backs, I do not see how they slow down the Chiefs offense.
Baker Mayfield should do enough through the air against a Chiefs defense more vulnerable versus the pass than the run.
Pick: Over 45.5 (-110) | Bet to Over 46.5
Monday Night Football Player Props: Bucky Irving
Bucky Irving has been great when he's played and he is clearly the most talented running back the Buccaneers have.
Despite Rachaad White being mediocre (at best) this year, he's still leading the backfield, but it should be close to a 50-50 split on Monday night.With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out, the Bucs will likely rely heavily on the running game.
Irving has received decent work in the red zone over the last few weeks and he has three touchdowns in the last five games. I don't love the potential game script here, but even in a blowout, Irving should be getting work in the receiving game.
Pick: Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown (+300)
