The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) and Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) wrap up NFL Week 9 on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET. The game will be live on ESPN from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City and can be streamed on ESPN+, YouTube TV and other services.
The Chiefs are 9-point favorites over the Buccaneers (Chiefs -9) with the game total set at 45.5 points. The Chiefs are -450 on the moneyline to win outright, while Tampa Bay is +350 to pull off the upset.
The Chiefs won 27-20 last week over the Raiders. Patrick Mahomes continues to underperform relative to expectations, with eight touchdowns and nine interceptions on the season, but Kansas City remains undefeated at 7-0. The Buccaneers lost 31-26 last week to the Falcons. However, it was an admirable effort by Baker Mayfield in the absence of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, as they still managed to accumulate 432 yards of total offense in the loss.
Let's get into my Buccaneers vs. Chiefs predictions and picks for Monday Night Football.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 45.5 -110 / -110 | +350 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 45.5 -110 / -110 | -450 |
- Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Spread: Chiefs -9
- Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Over/Under: 45.5 points
- Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Moneyline: Chiefs -450, Buccaneers +350
- Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Chiefs 1H -4.5
- 53% of bets and 52% of the money are on the Chiefs to cover the spread.
- 85% of bets and 88% of the money are on the over.
- 93% of bets and 86% of the money on the moneyline are on the Chiefs.
My Chiefs vs. Buccaneers prediction leans toward Kansas City covering the first-half spread. Find the best lines using our live NFL odds page.
Pick Against the Spread
The Chiefs defense is a step up in class from what the Bucs have faced this season, but a big part of the handicap is the Chiefs' ability to play man coverage, which is why I prefer the first-half spread rather than full game to prevent the backdoor from coming into play.
Just last week, we saw the Raiders get in the backdoor and make a 27-13 game end on 27-20, covering +9. However, inclement weather could make it difficult for the Chiefs to build margin in a condensed timeframe, which is why it's just a lean.
Over/Under Prediction
If the rainy forecast for Monday Night Football holds, the under becomes a lot more appealing, but anything less and the Bucs defense is not to be trusted against a Chiefs offense that is trending up after acquiring DeAndre Hopkins.
Moneyline
I'm not betting either side's moneyline on Monday Night Football
My pick: Chiefs 1H -4.5
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Picks, Predictions
Baker Mayfield has the Buccaneers offense rolling. Over their last five games, the Bucs are averaging 34.2 points and 457.0 total yards per game.
Last week, he threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns in his first full game without Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (IR, ankle), but he'll miss his top two receivers a lot more in this matchup.
Unlike the string of defenses Mayfield has carved up over the last month, the Chiefs employ a man-heavy scheme. Against man coverage, Mayfield averages 0.09 Expected Points Added per Dropback compared to 0.23 EPA/DB against zone, according to FTN, but that was with Godwin and Evans healthy for most of the year.
Godwin and Evans have combined for 28 catches, 270 yards and six touchdowns against man coverage while no other Bucs receiver has more than 70 yards or one touchdown against single coverage. Their replacements, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer have combined to catch only 3-of-9 targets against man coverage.
Cade Otton, who has stepped up to be their most productive receiver of late, averages 1.68 yards per route against zone coverage but 0.41 versus man.
You have to go all the way back to Weeks 2-3 against Detroit and Denver for the last time the Buccaneers faced man-heavy defenses. Those two matchups saw the Bucs average just 13.5 points and 219.5 total yards.
Another thing that differentiates the Chiefs from defenses the Bucs faced over the last five games is their ability to get pressure, which they generate at a top-three rate. Mayfield has been the least-pressured quarterback among those with at least 185 dropbacks, and 20 of his 21 touchdown passes have come with a clean pocket.
The Bucs offense has been forced to become more backfield-centric in the wake of the Godwin and Evans injuries. However, this is a tough matchup for Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and on-again, off-again third amigo Sean Tucker.
The Chiefs have stifled opposing backfields to the tune of 3.5 yards per carry and rank second in DVOA against the run. They also rank in the top 10 in DVOA on passes to running backs.
Despite the Bucs' torrid offensive stretch, they are only 2-3 over that span because their defense has allowed 30.2 points and 363.4 total yards per game. The Bucs are getting healthier, but this would still be a good spot for Patrick Mahomes and his reloaded offense — with Kareem Hunt at running back and DeAndre Hopkins at wide receiver — alongside Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy.
Hunt's early season, couch-free-agent status and his 3.7 yards per carry since joining the Chiefs are deceiving. He has given the Chiefs a viable running game in the absence of Isiah Pacheco (IR, leg) thanks to his ability to run with consistency while handling heavy volume.
In four games since rejoining the Chiefs, Hunt is averaging 21.0 carries per game, and his 59.5% rushing success rate ranks second in the league among 50 qualified rushers, behind only Jahmyr Gibbs (64.1%), according to Pro Football Reference. If weather plays a factor, the Chiefs should have the edge in the running game on both sides of the ball.
But if the weather lets up, Mahomes could have a breakout game. The Bucs struggle to get pressure without blitzing, and Mahomes has destroyed the blitz throughout his career. Mahomes is also due for some positive turnover luck after throwing a pick in every game.
According to PFF, his turnover-worthy play rate of 2.5% is slightly below his career average of 2.6%, and he hasn't been charged with even one turnover-worthy play over the last three games despite tossing four interceptions over that span.
Pick: Lean Chiefs 1H -4.5 (Play to -5.5)
How To Watch Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium |
| Date: | Monday, Nov. 4 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+ and YouTube TV |
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers is scheduled for an 8:15 p.m. ET start time from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Monday night. The game will be live by ESPN and is streaming on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
