The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) and New Orleans Saints (2-3) will kick off the NFL Week 6 Sunday afternoon slate. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on FOX. The game can be streamed on YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
The Buccaneers are consensus 3.5-point favorites over the Saints on the spread (Buccaneers -3.5), with the over/under currently set at 42.5. Tampa Bay is -185 to win outright on the moneyline, while New Orleans is +155 to pull off the upset.
The Buccaneers lost 36-30 to the Falcons last week. Baker Mayfield continues to thrive with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions this season. The Saints lost 26-13 to the Chiefs last week. New Orleans has lost three straight games and was doubled up in terms of total yardage by Kansas City. Derek Carr is out for multiple weeks, so rookie Spencer Rattler is going to make his first NFL start.
Let's get into my Buccaneers vs. Saints prediction and my NFL picks and predictions for Week 6.
Buccaneers vs. Saints Expert Picks
Spread
I don't think the downgrade from Derek Carr to Spencer Rattler is as drastic as the betting market does, so I'm taking the points with the Saints at home.
Moneyline
I'm just taking the points and not betting the Saints moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm in line with the total for this game and have no pick.
My pick: Saints +3.5
Buccaneers vs. Saints Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 / -110 | -185 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 / -110 | +155 |
- Buccaneers vs. Saints Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
- Buccaneers vs. Saints Over/Under: 42.5 points
- Buccaneers vs. Saints Moneyline: Buccaneers -185, Saints +150
- Buccaneers vs. Saints Pick: Saints +3.5
- 61% of bets and 60% of the money are on the Buccaneers to cover the spread.
- 86% of bets and 69% of the money are on the over.
- 68% of bets and 97% of the money on the moneyline are on the Buccaneers.
My Saints vs. Buccaneers best bet is on the home underdog. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Buccaneers vs. Saints NFL Week 6
Let’s do some math.
On Sunday afternoon, this line was Saints -2.5. The Buccaneers had already played, so this was before the Saints lost to the Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
Derek Carr is not worth six points to the spread. I'm sorry. He had a couple good games early in the season, but Derek Carr giveth and Derek Carr taketh it away.
Now we’re seeing a lot of the same issues that the Saints offense had last season under offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. It's either a short pass or a low-percentage deep shot, and there's not a lot in between.
With that kind of offensive philosophy, I can’t get to Carr being worth more than about a field goal — maybe a little more than that, to the spread.
Now, it’s Spencer Rattler under center. You’re getting a little more mobility with Rattler than Carr, who gives you pretty much none.
Rattler will be playing with a team that’s fourth in overall DVOA. This is still a pretty good team, even if you're bringing in a bad quarterback for his first start. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is 15th.
The Saints pass defense should be able to disrupt Baker Mayfield in this matchup, having allowed just one touchdown pass this season. New Orleans has seven interceptions this season and is fifth in adjusted net yards per attempt allowed and seventh in pressure rate. Mayfield is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt with a clean pocket, but 5.5 under pressure.
Also, the Saints are No. 1 in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers. We know the Marshon Lattimore vs. Mike Evans matchup is always electric, and Lattimore usually gives the Bucs’ go-to receiver fits.
The Buccaneers have only played one top-10 defense this season and four that were ranked between 15th and 27th in the Commanders, Lions, Eagles and Falcons. Three of those four are ranked outside of the top 20.
Against those defenses, Tampa Bay averaged 30 points and 347 yards per game. Against the only top-10 defense that the Bucs played, the Broncos held them to seven points and 223 yards.
Also, we saw Tampa Bay’s defense just get lit up by Kirk Cousins for more than 500 passing yards. This defense still has some holes, even in the passing game.
Hopefully the Saints get Taysom Hill back to add another element to their offense. Even without him, though, New Orleans still has playmakers in Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave.
With Olave, the move away from Carr could be a positive since the QB1 wasn’t maximizing his talent. Also, Carr may have been dumping passes off to Kamara too much. Shaheed was the only player who Carr really looked to target down the field.
Finally, Mayfield is 15-27 in his career as a favorite, and Todd Bowles is 8-15 as a head coach as a favorite of a field goal or more.
With that, give me the 3.5 points with the Saints.
Pick: Saints +3.5
How to Watch NFL Week 6: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Caesars Superdome |
| Date: | Sunday, Oct. 13 |
| Kickoff Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX / YouTube TV |
Saints vs. Buccaneers is scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET start time, live from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La., on Sunday, Oct. 13. The game is broadcasted live by FOX and is streaming on YouTube TV.
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