Super Bowl MVP Longshots
Who To Bet If You Like Bengals
Tee Higgins (+5000) at BetMGM
If you like the Bengals to win, consider investing a bit in a longshot MVP nod for Tee Higgins.
The Rams run one of the most zone-heavy defenses in the NFL, and while Ja’Marr Chase has been the Bengals’ best receiver in terms of yards per route run against both man (3.59) and zone (2.38) coverage (per PFF), he averaged 1.21 more yards per route against man than zone. Meanwhile, Higgins was nearly dead even, averaging 2.13 against zone and 2.12 against man.
Higgins has also been the Bengals’ top receiver against Cover 4, which the Rams play more than any other team in the NFL. On top of that, Higgins has been the Bengals’ top receiver on passes to the short middle, where the Rams ranked 30th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
Chase is the Bengals’ top dog, but he will get defensive attention commensurate with such status, which will force Higgins to step up. If the Bengals win and Chase doesn’t have a monster game, there’s a decent chance that Joe Burrow also doesn’t post a monster stat line, as the two have a fantasy-point correlation of 0.64 according to the FantasyLabs NFL Pro Models. It’s conceivable we get a situation like last week, where Higgins had 103 of Burrow’s 250 yards (41.2%).
Wide receivers have won the award 12.5% of the time overall, but that’s been on the rise of late, with wideouts taking home the MVP trophy in four of the past 17 Super Bowls (23.5%). There’s even precedent for a wide receiver winning this award against these very Rams, as Julian Edelman took home the award over Tom Brady with a 10/141/0 performance in Super Bowl LIII.
Bet to: +2500
Who To Bet If You Like Rams
Leonard Floyd (+15000) at DraftKings
If you like the Rams to win, Leonard Floyd is the top longshot.
Aaron Donald and Von Miller are the household names who will get more of the handle and more defensive attention, but Floyd will be left one-on-one and could run over, through and around right tackle Isaiah Prince.
Floyd has 70 pressures and 13.0 sacks this season and is one of the best candidates to be in the right place at the right time to capitalize on havoc caused by Donald and/or Miller in the backfield.
Bet to: +7500
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