The Tennessee Titans (2-8) and Houston Texans (7-4) battle in NFL Week 12 at 1 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The game will be broadcast on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+.
The Texans are favored by 8.5 points over the Titans (Texans +8.5) with the game total set at over/under 40.5 points scored. The Texans are -400 moneyline favorites and the Titans are +310 to pull off the upset.
The Titans lost 23-13 to the Vikings last week. Will Levis threw for 295 yards against and has only thrown 1 interception over the Titans' last 2 games. The Texans won 34-10 over the Cowboys last week to end a two-game skid. Joe Mixon powered the offense with 153 yards of offense and 3 touchdowns.
Let's get into my Texans vs Titans picks and NFL picks.
Titans vs. Texans Prediction
Spread
Through 11 weeks, the Titans are the worst team against the spread (ATS) over the last 15 years. Naturally, I'm on them here.
Tennessee is due for positive regression, and the defense matches up very well to contain an underwhelming Texans offense. The Titans offense has been efficient over the past two weeks, and Will Levis has mostly avoided the back-breaking mistakes that put Tennessee in this position.
Moneyline
I'll take the points with Tennessee and not bet its moneyline.
Over/Under
I project the total at 39.5, so I'm close enough to the market that I don't have a pick.
My Pick: Titans +8.5
Titans vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
- Titans vs. Texans spread: Texans -8.5
- Titans vs. Texans over/under: 40.5 points scored
- Titans vs. Texans moneyline: Titans +310, Texans -400
- Titans vs. Texans best bet: Titans +8.5 (BetMGM)
MyTitans vs. Texans pick is on Tennessee to cover the spread. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Titans vs. Texans NFL Week 12 Preview
I’d avoided betting on the Titans since getting burned by them to start the season.
The Titans are 1-9 ATS, which is truly remarkable — the 2007 Ravens are the only team to start that poorly. Every break has gone against them in many ways, whether it’s special-teams miscues, crucial turnovers, ridiculous flags and more — you name it, it's happened to them.
Now is Tennessee a good team? No. Let’s get that out of the way.
Will Levis, though, has played better the past two weeks. Against very good defenses in the Chargers and Vikings, he’s ranked 21st in adjusted EPA per play, which isn’t great by any stretch but is an improvement.
What has held Levis back the past two weeks is that he’s been sacked 12 times. This offensive line has been horrible, putting him in awful positions. You can’t win a game if you’re getting sacked six times.
The Titans defense, meanwhile, continues to play well. This matchup against the Texans isn’t going to scare it either.
Tennessee can get pressure in the middle of the line, and the Texans' offensive line has especially struggled there. That will be key to slowing down Houston in more ways than just creating pressure.
I know Nico Collins is back, but this Texans offense goes through Joe Mixon. If you can contain him and force the Texans into passing downs, you can create negative plays.
The offensive line has struggled to protect C.J. Stroud, who has not built off an impressive rookie season.
The Texans are also not great as a favorite with Stroud. They tend to get very conservative offensively while the Titans are good at preventing explosive plays. Houston will have to earn every yard in this game.
Levis will get us there. We just need this to be within a touchdown.
My Pick: Titans +8.5 (BetMGM; Play to +7.5)
Texans vs Titans Betting Trends
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