Titans vs. Chargers Odds
The Titans and Chargers are similar in a lot of ways.
Both teams are 7-6 and have been plagued by injuries along their offensive lines, wide receiver corps, and defenses. And both offenses feature effective running backs with quarterbacks who can distribute the ball where it needs to go.
Given these similarities, it’s easy to see why this is a three-point spread that favors the home team. But the total isn't factoring in Los Angeles' health as of late.
With both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back in the lineup, the Chargers offense is trending back toward full strength as they get ready to face a Titans defense that's allowed 35 and 36 points in back-to-back weeks against the Eagles and Jaguars.
Titans vs. Chargers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Titans and Chargers match up statistically:
Titans vs. Chargers DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 22 | 18 | |
| Pass DVOA | 15 | 13 | |
| Rush DVOA | 20 | 25 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 24 | 16 | |
| Pass DVOA | 22 | 28 | |
| Rush DVOA | 29 | 1 | |
Justin Herbert is one of the league's most talented young quarterbacks, but he hasn’t had the help around him to fully display that this season.
The Chargers rank 23rd in PFF's Pass Blocking grade and 21st in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate. Rashawn Slater going down early in the season was a brutal blow to this offensive line and one of the main reasons the offense has been less effective than it was in 2021.
Bet Tennessee vs. Los Angeles at FanDuel
Another reason is the aforementioned absences of receivers Williams and Allen. They've both been in and out of the lineup throughout the season, barely playing together until last week — the first time all season they both made it through an entire game healthy. The result was 432 offensive yards against the Dolphins with the Williams-Allen combo combining for 18 catches, 208 yards and a touchdown.
This offense becomes much more dynamic when Herbert can lean on these two playmakers.
Tennessee's defensive line has been its strength this season, particularly in the run game. When rushing the passer, they rank eighth in PFF's Pass Rush grade, but only 24th in Pass Rush Win Rate. And this Sunday, they will be without Autry, who has been their highest-graded edge rusher.
David Long, their third-highest-graded defender and best linebacker, was placed on injured reserve this week. Among linebackers, Long has the second-highest PFF Run Defense grade (89.0) in the league this season, trailing only the great Bobby Wagner.
Injuries are stacking up in the secondary, too. Cornerbacks Tre Avery and Kristian Fulton have already been ruled out, as well as safety Amani Hooker. Caleb Farley and Elijah Molden are on injured reserve as well, leaving the Titans secondary with just Kevin Byard and rookie Roger McCreary.
The Chargers shouldn’t have a tough time moving the ball against this skeleton crew of a defense.
The Chargers defense has been pretty brutal for much of the year — particularly against the run — ranking 27th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 30th in PFF's Rushing Grade and 29th in Rushing EPA allowed. That's not ideal when facing Derrick Henry and this Titans offense. However, Tennessee hasn’t lived up to its reputation when it comes to the effectiveness of its rushing game this season — the Titans rank just 24th in Rushing Success Rate and 26th in Rushing EPA.
Tennessee also ranks just 18th in EPA per Dropback and 17th in Dropback Success Rate. Ryan Tannehill has the 14th-highest PFF Passing Grade among qualifying quarterbacks this year. Unfortunately, rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks will be out with a concussion this weekend, so Tannehill will have one fewer weapon to utilize.
All-world safety Derwin James is doubtful to play as of writing, and Sebastian Joseph-Day and Bryce Callahan are questionable, which could also impact this defense. There were rumors earlier this week of Joey Bosa returning, but after missing practice, it’s unlikely he will be back.
Betting Picks
With the Chargers offense as close to full strength as it probably gets against a Titans defense dealing with a cluster of injuries in the secondary, Herbert should have a huge day. I don’t foresee the Titans slowing him down unless Vrabel pulls another miracle out of his bag of tricks, which he does manage from time to time.
The other side of this handicap is a bit more challenging. The Chargers defense is bad and without key players, but the Titans offense hasn’t been prolific by any means. The Chargers should win this game, but at the key number of three, I'm not certain that they can cover this spread.
Instead, I prefer taking the total to go over 46.5 points. I have faith in Tannehill and Henry leading the Titans offense to at least some success against the Chargers. And this game otherwise has sneaky potential to turn into a score-fest.
Forty-seven has been a key number in NFL betting in recent years, so I would advise against taking the over once it reaches 47 (check real-time NFL odds here).
Pick: Over 46.5 |
