The Tennessee Titans (2-6) and Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) will kick off the NFL Week 10 late slate at 4:05 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. The game will be broadcast on FOX and can be streamed on YouTube TV and other platforms.
The Chargers are 8-point favorites over the Titans (Chargers -8) with the over/under set at 39.5 points scored. Los Angeles is -400 on the moneyline and Tennessee is +310.
The Chargers won 27-10 over the Browns last week, picking up their third win in their last four games. Justin Herbert threw for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns in the win, while JK Dobbins tallied 119 total yards. The Titans won 20-17 over the Patriots last week. After a 3-game absence, they'll get back quarterback Will Levis back for today's contest.
Let's get into my Titans vs. Chargers predictions and my NFL picks for Week 10.
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 39.5 -110 / -110 | +310 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 39.5 -110 / -110 | -400 |
- Titans vs. Chargers spread: Chargers -8
- Titans vs. Chargers over/under: 39.5 points
- Titans vs. Chargers moneyline: Chargers -400, Titans +310
- Titans vs. Chargers pick: Titans +8
Against the Spread Pick
My Chargers vs. Titans best bet is on Tennessee to cover the spread. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Over/Under Prediction
Pass.
Moneyline
I do not have a moneyline pick for this matchup, but I am betting on the Titans to cover the spread at 7.5.
My pick: Titans +8
How to Bet Titans vs. Chargers Picks and Odds
Will Levis returns at QB for the Tennessee Titans against a stingy Los Angeles Chargers defense that ranks sixth overall.
However, this is a spot where I think, with Levis now expected to be under center, the Titans can keep the game low scoring and close. See, Los Angeles ranks just 14th against the run by defensive DVOA, so they are essentially a middle of the pack defense in that area.
If the Titans can manage to produce on early downs on the ground, they'll give Los Angeles fits, and there's reason to believe they can.
Los Angeles started out the year hot, allowing just a 25.4% rushing success rate on early downs in their first four games despite facing teams that rank on average 21.0 in offensive rush DVOA. In their four most recent games, that's jumped to 40.3% against teams with that average a 20.5 offensive rush DVOA ranking.
The Chargers are banged up defensively as well, with starting CB Asante Samuel Jr. out for the year, as well as LB Khalil Mack having yet to practice this week, and CB Kristian Fulton also yet to practice. Inside linebacker Denzel Perryman is also banged up, missing Wednesday practice and being limited on Thursday with a toe injury.
Both QB matchups also help the Titans chances to cover here.
Per Fantasy Points, against man coverage, QB Will Levis has a negative adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) meaning when we include sacks, interceptions, and touchdowns on average he's had a net effect of moving the ball backward. Fortunately for Levis, the Chargers play man coverage at the lowest rate in the league. Against Cover 4 and Cover 6, both of which the Chargers play at or near league-high rates, Levis has a solid 6.84 ANY/A.
The opposite is true for Herbert, who has the worst coverage grade of the week at -14.7%. Herbert has shredded Cover 2 defense this season, but the Titans deploy them at one of the lowest rates in the league.
This game, while not a Luck Rankings game by our traditional thresholds, does have another major luck factor swinging the Titans way.
Using a metric I developed called Scoring Luck, which measures each teams' expected win percentage by Expected Score against their expected win percentage from their actual points scored and allowed, the Titans rank 31st while the Chargers rank first.
That's a difference of 30, and the Scoring Luck Gap is 47.5%, which is extremely high at this point in the season. After Week 3, unlucky teams in games with a Scoring Luck Gap of at least 35% are 15-4 (78.9%) ATS since 2018, including 4-0 ATS this year. Road teams, like the Titans are this week, that meet this metric are a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018.
Pick: Titans +8 (-110)
Betting Trends
- 84% of bets and 65% of the money are on the Chargers to cover the spread.
- 81% of bets and 83% of the money are on the over.
- 96% of bets and 75% of the money on the moneyline are on the Chargers.
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | SoFi Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Nov. 10 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX / YouTube TV |
Chargers vs. Titans is scheduled for a 4:05 p.m. ET start time, live from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on Sunday, Nov. 10. The game is broadcasted live by FOX and is streaming on YouTube TV.
NFL Weather
