The Tennessee Titans (0-3) and Miami Dolphins (1-2) face off to start NFL Week 4's two-game Monday Night Football slate, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN and can be streamed on platforms like ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
The Dolphins are consensus 2.5-point favorites over the Titans on the spread (Dolphins -2.5), with the over/under currently set at 37.5 points. The Dolphins are -145 favorites on the moneyline, while the Titans are +130 to pull off the upset.
In addition to their winless record, the Titans are 0-3 against the spread. Will Levis (5 INTs, 1 fumble so far in 2024) has committed a costly turnover every week that has led to points for the opposition. The Dolphins did their best to hang in with the Seahawks in a 24-3 loss last week, but Tyreek Hill and De'Von Achane couldn't overcome a shaky performance from Skylar Thompson.
Let's get into my Titans vs. Dolphins predictions and my NFL picks for Monday, September 30.
Titans vs. Dolphins Expert Picks
Spread
I expect the Dolphins to win, but I'd prefer to play the cheap moneyline rather than laying -2.5 and needing to win by a margin in a low-totaled game with a backup quarterback.
Moneyline
I'm going Dolphins moneyline, and the best line is -135 at BetMGM, according to our NFL Odds page.
Over/Under
This is a Luck Under if you're so inclined, and the trends favor outdoor totals of 37 or below going under (38-15-1 since 2013, according to our Action Labs data), but the explosive skill-position players in this game plus Will Levis turnover variance creates unfavorable conditions for an under with a total this low.
Prediction
My Pick: Dolphins Moneyline (Bet to -170)
Titans vs. Dolphins Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
- Titans vs. Dolphins spread: Dolphins -2.5
- Titans vs. Dolphins over/under: 37.5 points
- Titans vs. Dolphins moneyline: Dolphins -140, Titans +120
- Titans vs. Dolphins pick: Dolphins to win outright
My Dolphins vs. Titans best bet is on the Dolphins moneyline at -140. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Dolphins vs. Titans Betting Trends
- 50% of bets and 68% of the money are on the Dolphins to cover the spread.
- 85% of bets and 77% of the money are on the over.
- 82% of bets and 87% of the money on the moneyline are on the Dolphins.
Titans vs. Dolphins Monday Night Football Week 4
Typically, the value lies with a winless dog like the Titans, but this profiles more as a get-right spot for Miami.
Tyler Huntley is an upgrade on Thompson, but the Dolphins still have to win in spite of their quarterback. Let's compare this Titans team to the Seahawks squad that easily took care of Miami last week.
- The Seahawks rank first in in pressure rate (36.7%). The Titans rank 28th (16.5%)
- The Seahawks boast an elite cornerback group featuring Tariq Woolen (fifth of 95 at PFF), Devon Witherspoon (24th of 95), and Tre Brown (36th of 95). The Titans just put starting cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (groin) on IR. They also have L'Jarius Sneed, who was supposed to be elite but ranks 94th of 95 corners with a 40.8 grade. He is also nursing a hamstring injury that limited his practice time this week.
- The Seahawks ranked second in defensive DVOA. The Titans rank 17th, but that overstates their true quality at the moment. In addition to losing Awuzie and dealing with injuries to Sneed and safety Armani Hooker (questionable-upper body), they will be without defensive takle Jeffery Simmons (doubtful, elbow). Simmons is not just Tennessee's best player, he is one of the best defensive players in the league, and has tangible value to the point spread.
Surrounded by speedy weapons or not, a backup quarterback was never going to have a real shot on the road against Seattle. But at home against a defense that struggles to get pressure, is without its best player up front, and has a secondary in flux?
That's where surrounding Huntley with guys like Hill, Achane, and Jaylen Waddle can make a difference, while Huntley's scrambling ability (41.7 rushing yards per game in eight career starts) helps offset the absence of left tackle Terron Armstead (concussion).
Turnovers are a volatile statistic, so we can't bank on Levis to simply gift the game to Miami like he has done the first three weeks with eight total turnovers. But even in terms of down-to-down performance, Levis leaves a lot to be desired. His 38.0% career success rate is 3.5 points worse than Huntley's, and Levis brings much less to the table with his legs (11.9 rushing yards per game in 12 career starts).
The Titans are working with some nice skill-position talent as well, but Tony Pollard, DeAndre Hopkins, and Calvin Ridley are no Achane, Hill, and Waddle, so if Levis isn't giving them a bankable advantage at the quarterback position, then it begs the question: Where the Titans have an edge in this matchup, period?
It's not an offensive line — both are bad, but Miami still grades out higher even without Armstead. It's not defense: Miami gets more pressure (20.7%, 21st) and has more impact players healthy (Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell and Zach Seiler). It's not special teams since Miami ranks sixth in special teams DVOA while the Titans rank 32nd. It's not coaching — you'd still take Mike McDaniel's offensive mind over Brian Callahan's at this point, especially since Levis seems to have regressed in his first offseason under Callahan.
While the Titans are more desperate at 0-3, I'd still give the Dolphins the intangible advantage. Not only are they at home and starting a quarterback the Titans haven't seen on film yet in their offense, but they also have motivation for revenge after the Titans upset them in a 28-27 comeback on Monday Night Football last season.
Per our Action Labs data, Huntley is 5-4 (56%) against the spread as a starter. Meanwhile, Levis is 3-9 (25%), failing to cover by an average of 4.2 points per game.
Pick: Dolphins Moneyline -140 (Play to -175)
How to Watch Monday Night Football: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium |
| Date: | Monday, Sept. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+ and YouTube TV |
Dolphins vs. Titans is scheduled for a 7:30 p.m. ET start time, live from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami tonight. The game is broadcast live by ESPN and is streaming on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
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