The Houston Texans will face off against the Miami Dolphins in South Florida at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
It's a little bit of a toilet bowl. Both teams are 1-7 and are terrible on both sides of the ball.
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has had an incredibly disappointing season — enough so that Miami had been in extensive discussions to acquire Deshaun Watson from these very Texans.
The Texans, meanwhile, have had their star quarterback on the bench after he was accused of sexual misconduct by over 20 women over the summer.
Houston ranks dead last in offensive DVOA while the Dolphins are sixth-worst.
On defense, the Texans are 10th-worst while the Dolphins rank seventh-worst, according to Football Outsiders.
Despite Miami's paltry offense, the top three props this week involve their skill position players.
Texans v. Dolphins Most Popular Player Props
- DeVante Parker to record more than 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Jaylen Waddle to record more than 50 receiving yards (-180)
- Myles Gaskin to record more than 54.5 rushing yards (-115)
The above data is provided by PointsBet.
DeVante Parker was placed on injured reserve on Friday and will miss this game. So disregard the most popular player prop.
Overall, my thesis would have been the same on this Parker prop as it is for Jaylen Waddle's prop.
Parker had fulfilled his most popular player prop in nine of his 20 career games in the Tagovailoa era. That implies odds of about +120.
Waddle's rate of conversion implies odds around +100.
Both implied rates show that you're paying a premium for the lines PointsBet is providing on Sunday.
Of course, this Texans' defense is worse than the average team the Dolphins have faced since 2020, but they're not bad against the pass.
Houston is 16th in the NFL against the pass so far this season.
As tempting as these passing props are, I'd stay away from anything having to do with Miami's air attack.
The prop I would wager on involves Myles Gaskin — and the Texans' 31st-ranked run defense.
Gaskin has fulfilled this third-most wagered-on prop in just seven of his 18 career games during the Tua era. That implies odds of roughly +158.
But, Houston's run defense is so, so bad that the Dolphins will assuredly give him more touches.
For reference, when Miami played the fourth-worst run defense in the NFL in the Atlanta Falcons, Gaskin got a season-high 15 carries.
Expect Gaskin to receive a similar amount of touches on Sunday. I'd drop a unit on his rushing yard prop.
