Degenerates rejoice: There’s NFL Preseason to bet on.
The 2024 NFL Preseason gets underway Thursday night with the NFL Hall of Fame Game featuring Texans vs. Bears in Canton, Ohio. Something to keep in mind is that weather forecasts call for a 20% chance of rain, and the field conditions at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium can get notoriously sloppy in rainy conditions.
With that said, what’s the play? Let's break down the game and get to my Texans vs Bears best bet.
| Texans Odds | -2 |
| Bears Odds | +2 |
| Over / Under | 30.5 |
| Moneylines | -130 / +110 |
The spread flipped from Bears -1.5 to Bears +1.5 after Bears head coach Matt Eberflus confirmed that Caleb Williams and the rest of the starters won’t play, creating a nice betting opportunity to back the dog in a coinflip game that will mostly be decided by replacement-level players and randomness.
On the surface, the Texans look to have the edge at quarterback with the more experienced trio of Davis Mills, Case Keenum, and Tim Boyle. The Bears will roll out Tyson Bagent to start, followed by veteran Brett Rypien and rookie undrafted free agent Austin Reed. However, when you’re playing with a bunch of linemen and receivers who will mostly fail to sniff regular-season action, scrambling ability becomes more valuable, which gives the edge to Chicago.
Between last preseason and regular season, Bagent ran 134 yards and four touchdowns on 31 carries (4.3 yards per carry). Reed also has escapability in the pocket and ran for 12 TDs over two seasons at Western Kentucky. Meanwhile, Mills has one carry for -5 yards over the past two preseasons combined, Keenum used to be able to move okay but is now 36, and Boyle has 12 carries for 12 yards across five preseasons.
Texans vs Bears Best Bet
When sportsbooks list a favorite with shorter odds than -3 in the preseason, it is a tell of sorts, indicating the line is more market- or narrative-driven and the true line should be closer to a pick’em.
Case in point: According to our Action Labs data, underdogs that close +2 or shorter with a line that opened inside of three (or with the 'dog favored, as is the case here) are 71-41-9 (63%) against the spread since 2012, covering by 2.2 points per game.
And, for what it’s worth, the Bears are 4-1-1 (80%) against the spread in the preseason under Eberflus, covering by an average of 5.2 points per game.
Pick: Bears +2 (ESPN BET & Caesars) to pick’em
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