Browns vs. Texans Odds
| Browns Odds | -13.5 (-110) |
| Texans Odds | +13.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +500 / -720 |
| Over/Under | 48 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
After a big Week 1 win, the Houston Texans will head into FirstEnergy Stadium to take on the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon.
The Texans (1-0) defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars last week by a score of 37-21 behind strong performances from quarterback Tyrod Taylor and wide receiver Brandon Cooks, while the Browns (0-1) found themselves on the wrong side of a Week 1 game against the Kansas City Chiefs and hope to bounce back on Sunday.
With a 13.5-point spread, Vegas is counting on the Browns to take care of business. Can we rely on Browns playmakers like Nick Chubb to put up big performances in this one, or are the Texans being discounted once again as a big road underdog?
Texans Prepare For Much Stiffer Test
The Texans surprised many with what was an efficient and productive offense in their Week 1 win over the Jaguars. While they do deserve some credit, Houston had a favorable matchup against arguably the worst team in the NFL.
Taylor completed a relatively efficient 63.6% of his passes and finished the day with 291 passing yards and two touchdowns. Cooks also corralled five catches for 132 yards on seven targets, a strong indicator that he’s already built up chemistry with his QB1 early in the season. This week, however, he’ll have a tougher task against corners Greg Newsome II and Denzel Ward, whom he projects to see for the majority of his snaps.
The rest of the defense will also pose a challenge. Despite the worst possible matchup last week, the Browns defense comes in with a 65.1 PFF Defense Rating, 15th amongst all teams. After an offseason that saw upgrades across the board with the additions of Jadeveon Clowney, Malik Jackson and Josh Johnson II, expect that number to increase beginning this week.
Browns Will Dial Up The Ground Game
Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. was ruled out earlier this week as he continues to recover from last season’s ACL tear. Linebacker Anthony Walker (hamstring) and left tackle Jedrick Wills (ankle) are also both questionable.
The Browns came up just short last week in their matchup with the Chiefs, but there is reason for optimism going forward. Baker Mayfield was very efficient with his passing, completing 75% en route to 321 passing yards on the day. He should put up more strong numbers this week against a Texans defense with a 56.7 PFF Pass Coverage rating after Week 1, 21st amongst all teams.
The running game was also incredibly effective last week behind strong performances from Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The duo averaged 5.5 yards per carry and combined for 116 yards and three touchdowns.
This week, they get a great matchup against a Texans defense with a 48.8 PFF Run Defense Rating (fourth-worst in the NFL) and a -1.5% Defense Pass DVOA (per Football Outsiders), sixth-worst amongst all teams. Expect a heavy dose of the Browns rushing attack in this one and a big day out of Chubb as the lead back. He out-carried Hunt 15-6 in Week 1, a ratio that I believe we can expect to continue throughout the season. The difference in this one, however, is that the Browns should be in command most of the game, leading to more opportunities for both backs.
Texans-Browns Pick
Over the last couple of seasons, we’ve seen first-hand exactly what Chubb is capable of on the ground, particularly in matchups with positive game scripts against subpar opponents. That, my friends, is exactly what we have here in Week 2.
Even after a victory against one of the worst teams in football last week, this Texans defense ranks amongst the worst against the run by nearly all metrics. Coming into the season, the consensus was also that this was one of the worst units in the NFL. This week, they take on one of the league’s strongest rushing attacks in Chubb and Hunt.
If the current line of -13.5 holds true, we should see a positive game script for Chubb nearly all day. In the past, we’ve seen the Browns lean on him heavily in these types of situations. Last season, in games with at least 19 carries, Chubb averaged 116 yards on the ground. Even with Hunt mixing in, he should eclipse 19 carries in this one given the opponent.
At the current total of 87.5 rushing yards, Chubb will only need to average 4.4 yards per carry if he handles the ball on the ground 20 times. In 2020, he averaged 5.6 yards per attempt on the season.
I’m targeting the Chubb over as my main play in this one and would be comfortable playing it up to a total of 95 if the line increases between now and kickoff.
Pick: Nick Chubb Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM
