We rarely have a matchup of clinched division winners in Week 16, but welcome to the 2024-25 NFL season. The Chiefs have been unconvincingly winning all season, while the Texans play in one of the worst divisions in the NFL.
I have a Texans vs. Chiefs prop for each team and am focusing on a pair of key offensive players in this matchup. We're betting overs to kick off our NFL Week 16 weekend.
Here are my NFL prop picks for Texans-Chiefs on Saturday.
Texans vs. Chiefs Player Props: C.J. Stroud & Travis Kelce
C.J. Stroud Over 9.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Sean Koerner has C.J. Stroud projected for 17 rushing yards, and Chris Raybon has him pegged for 16. That shows a great edge on the over at 10.5.
Stroud has gone over this total in eight of his past nine games, and he’s also cleared this total in six of seven road games this season.
The Texans haven’t really played a difficult schedule because they're in the AFC South, but Stroud has gone over this total twice in three games against teams over .500.
I’d play this one up to 13.5.
Travis Kelce Over 4.5 Receptions (-135)
Koerner has Travis Kelce pegged for 5.5 receptions, while Raybon has him at 5.8.
The later it gets in the season, the more we see Patrick Mahomes rely on Kelce. Kelce has cleared 4.5 receptions in three of the Chiefs’ past four games and in six of their past eight. He didn’t last week against the Browns, mostly because the game script saw Kansas City in control of the game. However, he still saw eight targets.
The Texans rank third in DVOA against opposing tight ends, but Kelce is almost matchup-proof. The Chiefs will find a way to get him the ball if they want to. Also, his average depth of target for the season is 7.4 yards, so he’s not running far from the line of scrimmage.
Mahomes’ ankle injury should help this prop. He will likely be less mobile than usual and should look to get rid of the ball quickly. That means Kelce and fellow tight end Noah Gray may be his primary targets.
