One Philadelphia vs. Houston is much more evenly matched on Thursday night than the other.
While the Astros and Phillies are playing an exciting World Series, the dominant Eagles take on the horrendous Texans on Thursday Night Football. Oddly enough, we're betting a Houston over and Philadelphia under.
Sean Koerner's player prop projections have been providing value to bettors all season. There are a couple edges in this matchup that stand out, which you can read about below.
Dameon Pierce
Over 2.5 Receptions (-145, BetMGM)
If you’ve read our content around the site, you’ll know a few things about this matchup.
1) The Eagles are an elite team, especially in the first half. The expectation tonight is that they start strongly and do not let up. Houston should be playing most of this game from behind.
2) The Texans offense is horrendous. Gilles Gallant even recommended betting Houston to not score a touchdown tonight.
The one bright spot in the Texans offense is Dameon Pierce, whose stock skyrocketed during training camp and the preseason and has continued rising thanks to a strong rookie season.
Pierce’s receptions over is juiced at -145 tonight, but it seems like a reasonably sure thing for him to go over.
Pierce has at least three receptions in each of the Texans’ last seven games, and he’s been targeted at least four times in each. Gone are the days of Rex Burkhead taking passing-down snaps away from Pierce. The veteran will still see some action, but this is Pierce’s offense.
We saw last week when Pierce scored a garbage-time TD in the final minute of the Texans’ loss to the Titans that he will be in until the end.
A.J. Brown
Under 70.5 Receiving Yards (PointsBet)
The Texans allowed more than 300 rushing yards last week. The Eagles are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL, led by Jalen Hurts and a very good season from Miles Sanders.
Philadelphia shouldn’t have to air it out like last week against the Steelers. Even then, the Eagles probably didn’t need Brown to score three touchdowns. They had other avenues toward winning.
This Texans defense has the worst DVOA against the run in the NFL, though, so it’s easy to see Philly attacking mostly on the ground.
With that, Brown has gone under this total three times already this season, including in two of the Eagles’ last three games. There’s no doubting his talent or status as one of the NFL’s best receivers, but this isn’t the matchup where Philly will need to lean on him to win.
