Texans vs Jaguars Player Props: Betting Christian Kirk for Big Week 6 Performance

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Christian Kirk Receiving Yards

The Jaguars shocked the NFL when they signed Christian Kirk to a contract worth $72 million over four years. It reset the market for NFL receivers, and critics of the deal weren't hard to find.

Fast forward to Week 5, Kirk has exceeded expectations proving to be worth every penny. He's averaging 81.8 receiving yards per game while leading his team with a 28.75% target rate.

Despite his overall success, Kirk appeared to have his first “down” game in Week 4 vs. the Eagles, going 2-60 on nine targets. I will give him a pass for two reasons.

First, the weather was horrible. Hurricane Ian's aftermath landed in Philadelphia, and wind conditions and rain made it hard to catch the ball.

Second, with his teammate Zay Jones ruled out, return specialist Jamal Agnew saw his role increase playing 38% of snaps, running 62.5% of those snaps in the slot. I mention this because Kirk, who averaged 76.5% of his snaps out of the slot and 21.6% out wide in the first three weeks, saw his alignment drastically change, running 48.1% out of the slot and 44.4% out wide, according to Pro Football Focus.

With Jones good to go, I expect Kirk to return to his slot role, which earned him a 25.3% target rate.

Week 5’s matchup against the Texans is a good one for Kirk, as well. Running out of the snap, Kirk is unlikely to match up against No. 3 overall pick Derek Stingley Jr., who mostly stays outside. Instead, Kirk will see a lot of Desmond King, who allows a 66.7 catch percentage and 14.8 yards per reception.

Kirk has achieved 67 or more receiving yards in three of his last four games of the season, so this feels like a discount worth targeting. With better weather and an up-tempo matchup, I love for his volume to be productive and hit his yards prop this Sunday.