Stereotypes are often the downfall of many casual NFL bettors, as they place wagers based on mainstream narratives and "gut feel" instead of data.
However, it's fair to worry about stereotypical London weather whenever the NFL heads overseas, especially at Wembley Stadium.
Because, as we already know from out Bet Labs software, wind has an effect on scoring, which makes sense since breezy weather can hamper both the explosive passing and field-goal kicking games.
But what is the threshold for when bettors should jump in on a "windy under?"
Odds as of Sunday at 7 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Let's take a more detailed look at the Texans vs. Jaguars weather forecast, including whether this NFL London game is worth an under wager.
Texans vs. Jaguars Weather Forecast
The current forecast is calling for sustained winds of just 5-6 mph, which does not fit our windy under NFL betting angle. In fact, this forecast has gotten considerably milder since Friday, when more severe winds were expected for today's game.
Since the start of the 2003 NFL season, unders are 469-371-10 (55.8%) in games played in consistent double-digit breezes, so we're typically looking for games with winds of at least 10 mph.
In fact, unders are 11-11 in NFL games played at Wembley Stadium in London, but 7-1 when those matchups experience double-digit breezes.
That eight-game sample is too small in its own right to justify betting any under, but is a little more meaningful considering it's part of the larger overall trend of lower-than-expected scoring when winds reach double-digits.
However, with just over two hours until kickoff, the weather for Texans vs. Jaguars does not appear to be something bettors need to worry about when considering a play on the current total of 46.5.
