Texans vs Ravens Best Bets & Picks: NFL Divisional Round
Our staff has you covered with Texans vs Ravens best bets & picks. We have picks across all sorts of markets, including sides and player props. Click on a bet below to navigate this post.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texans vs. Ravens
By Stuckey
Houston has started slow all season, with last week being a clear exception rather than the rule. It ranked 20th in first-quarter scoring (Baltimore fourth) compared to ninth in the fourth quarter.
Lastly, don't forget about the pretty substantial home-field advantage (with conditions) and superior special teams for Baltimore.
For what it's worth, Jackson is the most profitable quarterback in NFL history in the 1H. He has gone a ridiculous 50-25-2 (66.7%) ATS in the 1H, covering by a field goal per game on average. Meanwhile, Harbaugh is the most profitable coach in NFL history in the 1H with an ATS record of 148-108-3 (59%).
There's obviously some overlap there, but Harbaugh is still 98-78-6 (55.7%) if you remove Jackson, including 7-2 against the number in Tyler Huntley starts.
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Texans vs. Ravens
By Simon Hunter
This spread is way too big. My guess is that books are protecting against teasers and moneyline parlays, maybe adding in some effect of the cold weather. I'm not sure why this number has gone back up to 9.5, but how do we not take those free two points of value?
C.J. Stroud isn’t like any other rookie QB we’ve seen before. He always makes the right decision and if there isn’t a play to be made, he doesn't force the issue. The guy thinks like a veteran and lives for the next down. So, we trust him and this Texans offense to keep this game close.
On the other side, let's talk about Lamar Jackson. I know it’s a small sample, but we’ve seen him struggle in his career in this spot. Look at what the trends say: On 12 or more days of rest, he’s 1-6 against the spread (ATS). Over the past three seasons, he's 6-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more points. He's 1-8 when laying 7.5 or more. His only cover as a big favorite was Week 1 this season at home against the Texans as a 9.5-point favorite. That was against a rookie head coach and a rookie QB in their debuts.
Now, a few are scared that the Texans are the biggest public 'dog of the week, getting close to 60% of tickets as of Friday afternoon. In the last 20 years in the playoffs, only four teams that were underdogs of a touchdown or more closed with 60%+ of tickets:
- 2014 Saints (+10) at Seahawks (23-15 loss)
- 2008 Giants (+12.5) vs. Patriots (17-14 win)
- 2008 Giants (+7) at Cowboys (21-17 win)
- 2008 Seahawks (+9) at Packers (42-20 loss)
Take this big number. Throw a little on the moneyline and let Jackson prove to us he can win and cover at home.
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Texans vs. Ravens
The Ravens offense was rolling heading into week 18, and I expect that to continue now that we have an even healthier version of this unit in this spot against the Texans.
Baltimore averaged 34.6 points per game at home this season when Lamar Jackson started at quarterback, clearing this team total in every home game they played after September.
On the other side, Houston's defense was an average unit during the regular season but clearly struggled on the road. The Texans finished 4-4 on the road, facing only one playoff team in those eight games this season. In the latter half of the regular season, three of their four road trips resulted in poor performances against teams ranking outside the top 10 in offensive DVOA. The Texans surrendered 360 yards to the Colts, 357 yards to the Jets, and 380 yards to the Bengals.
Traveling to take on a Ravens offense led by a soon-to-be two-time MVP will be a much more difficult task. Baltimore is top five in both rush and pass DVOA offensively.
Texans vs. Ravens
It's the playoffs, and Lamar Jackson is going to be running the ball early and often. Jackson has hit this mark in just seven of his 16 games played, but the Ravens have been involved in a massive amount of blowouts this year. Only eight of their games have been decided by one score this year and most of the other games have been decided by at least two touchdowns, so the hit rate is misleading.
The weather in this game should also play a factor with temperatures being below freezing and winds around 15-20 MPH. I would hit this line all the way to 56.5.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 50.5 Rushing Yards |
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Texans vs. Ravens
By Tony Sartori
We hit this same prop in the Wild Card Round, and I am going back to the well for this Divisional Round matchup. There is no denying that C.J. Stroud has put together an excellent campaign, and he is going to be rewarded with the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award honors.
However, this is still a rookie quarterback playing in his first career playoffs, despite the fact that he looked tremendous last round. Not only that, but he is tasked with going against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.
Baltimore finished in the top 10 in the league in both yards allowed per game and passing yards allowed per game. The Ravens' underlying metrics were even stronger, ranking first in expected points contributed by passing defense per game.
Fading Stroud's completion's prop is not an indictment on his ability, which is clearly great, but rather the circumstances of going on the road in the playoffs for the first time in his career against arguably the league's best pass defense. Finally, Stroud has completed 21 or fewer passes in nine of his past 14 starts.
It's going to be hard to move the ball against the Ravens, and quick drives or three-and-outs should work in our favor for this Under. Or, like last game, maybe Stroud hits his deep shots and we go Under this number once again despite another Houston win.
I would play this line to -135.
Pick: C.J. Stroud Under 21.5 Completions (-130)
Texans vs. Ravens
By Ricky Henne
The stars are seemingly aligned for Gus Edwards to find paydirt.
A stout Houston run defense that allowed the sixth-fewest yards per game in the regular season and ranked second in DVOA has one major flaw: It allowed a ton of rushing touchdowns. The Texans gave up 19 scores on the ground, which was fifth most in the league. They were especially susceptible at the goal line, giving up 13 touchdowns inside the five-yard line including last week’s playoff game against the Browns.
Meanwhile, Edwards was the NFL’s top goal-line back in the regular season. He led the league in rushing touchdowns (12) and carries (19) inside the five. The main concern here is that Lamar Jackson might vulture some of his chances. However, Edwards had nearly a 4-to-1 ratio over the presumptive league MVP, who had five carries inside the five with one touchdown.
Combine Houston’s propensity for giving up rushing touchdowns with Edwards usage and success at the goal line and you better believe I’m riding the Gus Bus on Saturday.
Pick: Gus Edwards Anytime TD (+125) |
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Texans vs. Ravens
From the moment I dug into this matchup, I knew I wanted Ravens tight end overs. The Texans allowed 107 receptions to opposing tight ends in the regular season — more than any other team — and they allowed the fifth-most yards. And what happened in the first playoff game? Cleveland's top two receivers were David Njoku with 7/93 and Harrison Bryant with 4/65, both tight ends combining for 158 yards on 11 catches.
The question was which Baltimore tight end it would be, with Mark Andrews practicing in an attempt to return. But with Andrews likely out, Isaiah Likely is the guy. He's playing around 75% of the snaps since Andrews went out and compiled 19 catches for 291 yards and four scores, not counting Week 18. That's 3.8 receptions for 58.2 yards a game, with at least 40 yards in all five games.
Likely has five touchdowns in his last five games, which probably makes his Anytime TD odds of +200 (FanDuel) viable, but I love the receiving yards since Likely has 40, 83, 70, 56 and 42 in those five games. He's a big athlete who can bust a long one on any catch, so think about an escalator too. He's +194 to hit 50 yards and +450 to hit 70 (FanDuel), and he's done that in three and two of the past five games, respectively, so those odds are in our favor. Let's ride that escalator.
Pick: Isaiah Likely Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-113) |
