In what's been a tumultuous year for the San Francisco 49ers at quarterback, Kyle Shanahan may have found his guy in Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy.
Highly touted, No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance entered the season with every expectation in the world bestowed upon him.
In the card world, only a few players stood above Lance in terms of collectible prices. He was near the Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen stratosphere.
Earlier this year, Lance cards sold for $132K, $57K, $54K, $43K and $36K.
The most expensive one — Lance's rookie National Treasures 1/1 shield card — sold just weeks before the start of the NFL season for the price of a souped-up Porsche.
Then, Lance fractured his ankle in Week 2 after showing only a few glimpses of why he was picked so highly. Jimmy Garoppolo replaced him and played well with the same personnel before going down for the season himself.
Insert Purdy, who has led San Francisco to a 6-0 record.
And since taking the starting role against the Bucs, the 49ers are the No. 1 offense in the league. This is, of course, from the last pick of the 2022 NFL draft.
Lance's cards have tumbled precipitously.
First, when it looked like his injury would keep him out until 2023. Then, when it became a distinct possibility that he could be replaced in the long-term.
Brock Purdy, Trey Lance Card Value Juxtaposition
Percentage changes are since September.
In a corresponding move, Purdy's collectible value has skyrocketed — and in conjunction with an artificially low supply.
Because Purdy was the last pick in the draft — and due to manufacturing delays — his rookie card supply is far lower than fellow quarterbacks in his draft class.
And while his play has amplified his value, most of his cards aren't graded, which means there's probably more room to run.
Raw, ungraded cards are what's mostly on the market because those who scored Purdy cards found no use in grading them, or didn't have time.
PSA has graded only 26 Brock Purdy cards compared to 1,889 cards from Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett, according to Gem Rate, which monitors grading trends.
Out of the raw cards, Purdy's 2022 Elite rookie out of 999 has seen the greatest percentage increase. While they sold for roughly $5 across the market before he became starter, that card now consistently sells for about $75. That's a 1400% increase.
On the highest end of the spectrum, two Brock Purdy Panini Certified 1/1 cards sold for $9,700 and $6,000, while two National Treasures collegiate patch cards sold for $7,250 and $5,500, respectively.
"Those same cards likely would have sold for less than $1,000 earlier this season," said Geoff Wilson, founder of Sports Card Investor.
What’s even more impressive is that this has happened as the modern card market has dropped roughly 10% over the last quarter due to broader macroeconomic factors.
Meanwhile, recent sales for high-end Lance cards have fallen in the $4,000 to $7,000 range amid concerns about his future.
“His cards have taken a nose dive,” Wilson said.
Lance's 2021 Panini Prizm Base in a PSA 10 had been selling for $330 at the start of the season. It now sells for $50, Wilson said. That's an 87% decline.
And his higher end Prizm Silver in a 10 dropped from $1,500 to $350 over the same period for a 77% quarterly fall.
