The Detroit Lions are officially Super Bowl favorites.
Stop and read that sentence again, because you've never read it in the history of the Super Bowl era — until now.
The Lions are Super Bowl favorites, priced anywhere from +350 (FanDuel) to +400 (BetRivers), just ahead of the Chiefs and Bills, then the Eagles and Ravens, and then a big gap until everyone else.
So how did the Lions get here, and are they the real deal?
How they got here was a string of results Sunday. The Ravens were upset by the Steelers, dropping Baltimore to the current AFC 6-seed. The unbeaten Chiefs fell, too, at the hands of the Bills.
And then there were the Lions, who pretty much did the exact opposite of losing.
You have to get out your thesaurus to look up words for what the Lions did to the Jaguars on Sunday, and you should probably hide the kids too because the game was every bit as ugly as the 52-6 final score.
Lions Win Over Jaguars Was Borderline Unprecedented
Hopefully you tailed the Doug Pederson funeral escalator before the game.
We took the escalator all the way to the top and then ran out of levels. The Lions covered the number, then covered it two more times. They won by 28, by 33, and by 39, all with a touchdown to spare. They hit the team total over 44.5 too. There were no alts high enough for what Detroit did Sunday, but if books has posted them, the Lions would've hit those too.
I hope you followed along at our new Action Network App account, @ParlayExpress. The Parlay Express is for fun, sometimes goofy long shots — escalators, parlays, futures, and other bets to sprinkle a little pizza money on and go for a big win. Sunday's Doug Pederson funeral escalator returned 6.56 units on a 1.75 investment, a tidy 375% ROI.
It was an absolute buffet for the Lions' offense. All you can eat.
Jared Goff threw four touchdowns for more than 400 yards. David Montgomery ran in two scores, Jahmyr Gibbs one. Jameson Williams had 124 yards and a TD. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 11 balls for 162 yards and two scores. Everybody ate.
The Lions scored seven consecutive touchdowns to open the game, then finally settled for a disappointing field goal, before running the clock out to end the game. Detroit was successful on 37 of 38 series — all but that one failed third down that led to the field goal.
Detroit finished the game with a ridiculous 645 yards to just 170 for Jacksonville, nearly quadrupling its opponent. The Lions averaged 4.9 yards a play more than the Jaguars at 8.5. Detroit finished at 0.55 EPA per play, effectively scoring another point every two plays. Goff was at 1.11 EPA per play as a passer, adding a touchdown of value every six passes.
Those aren't just 100th percentile performances — those are curve breakers that ruin the stats for everyone else.
How about a few more superlatives?
- The Lions outgained the Jaguars by 475 yards, the largest differential in any NFL game since 1979 (per Michael David Smith).
- The Lions had more touchdowns (seven) than incompletions (five), already the fourth time the team has accomplished that same feat (Ben Solak).
- Detroit has scored 25 more touchdowns than its opponents, an average of 2.5 per game. Only three other teams are even above a +8 TD differential, with Buffalo a distant second at +14 (@DougAnalytics).
It was an absolute shellacking. Maybe the most stunning stat of them all is that, as of Tuesday afternoon, Pederson somehow still had his job.
How Do The Lions Stack Up With Other Top Contenders?
The crazy thing is this wasn't even the first huge win for the Lions this season. Detroit already had 47-9 and 52-14 wins over two other bad teams (Dallas and Tennessee, disrespectfully), and the Lions have had positive DVOA in every game this season, per Aaron Schatz.
The Lions now rank No. 2 in Offensive DVOA, No. 2 in Defensive DVOA, and No. 1 in Special Teams. Pretty good.
The offense is a ways behind the Ravens, the defense is barely behind the Vikings, the Lions are just that close to being the best in the NFL at basically everything.
Per Schatz, the Lions are the third best team through 10 game since 1979 behind only 1991 Washington and 2007 New England. The former won the Super Bowl and the latter didn't lose until they got there.
Those are the only teams in 45 NFL seasons better than the Lions through 10 games.
Schatz and FTN project the Lions at 14.6 wins, well ahead of their 13.5 in-season win total. FTN has the Lions at 93% to win the division — especially impressive considering the Vikings and Packers are 8-2 and 7-3, presumably breathing down Detroit's neck.
That actually shows value on the Lions at -400 to win the division at BetRivers, an implied 80% well short of the certainty FTN projects. Hey — value is value.
Detroit has only three road games left, only two of them outdoors. One is this week in Indianapolis, where the Lions are more than a touchdown favorite, then it's three straight home games against the Bears, Packers, and Bills. Weeks 16 and 17 bring outdoor trips to Chicago and San Francisco, and then its a home finale against the Vikings.
Do the Lions lose three of those games? That over-13.5 win total cashes unless there are three losses coming, and it will be pretty tough to lose with so many indoor games coming.
Since joining the Lions, Goff is 32-11 ATS playing indoors in the regular or postseason, an awesome 74% cover rate, covering by over five points a game. When Goff plays indoors with the Lions as a favorite of four or more, he's been nearly untouchable at 12-1 SU and ATS, covering 92% of the time by nearly a full touchdown.
The Lions simply do not lose indoors, especially as big favorites, as they likely will be the rest of the way.
Detroit is 87% likely to be the NFC 1-seed, per FTN, about a seven-in-eight chance, with Philadelphia the only real threat at this point.
A 1-seed means two home games as big favorites away from the Super Bowl. And in case you're wondering, that will be played in the Superdome in New Orleans this year — also indoors.
Is There Value In Betting The Lions?
So is it time to buy Lions futures? The price won't be cheap.
Detroit is +160 to win the NFC at FanDuel, an implied 38%. The Lions are +400 to win the whole thing at BetRivers, implied 20%.
The Lions are heavy favorites in the NFC. The Eagles are second behind Detroit but have the same odds of winning the NFC as the Lions do the Super Bowl at +400. Minnesota comes next in the NFC pecking order but is all the way back at +2500 to win it all.
Normally it's not a good idea to buy high after such a huge win, but believe it or not, FTN's projections suggests books are actually underrating the Lions.
FTN has the Lions 80% likely to play in the NFC Championship, where they'd likely be favored and at home, and 64% to win the NFC, almost a two-in-three shot at making the Super Bowl.
They project Detroit at 43.4% to win the whole thing for the first time ever, lapping the second-most-likely Ravens all the way back at 12.9%. In fact, FTN's data has the Lions more likely to win the Super Bowl than the Ravens, Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, and Texanscombined.
That feels a bit rich, but there's no question Dan Campbell's guys are firing on all cylinders.
Ben Johnson's offense is steady and explosive all at once. The run game is reliable behind one of the best lines in the league and a thunder-and-lightning duo in Montgomery and Gibbs, and the passing game can move the chains or hit you with the big play.
Aaron Glenn's defense might be even more impressive. The Lions lost DPOY favorite Aidan Hutchinson — still top 10 in pressures after missing over a month already — and their defensive metrics actually got better somehow. Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph rank as the top two safeties in the league at PFF.
And don't forget, the Lions basically won an entire game with a special teams against Tennessee a few weeks ago.
Detroit is the whole package, and it's time to invest.
Lions Futures To Bet Right Now
Can I interest you in rolling over some of that funeral escalator dough into a creative Lions future escalator?
There's value on Detroit to win the division at -400. The Lions are 3-0 already, with a road win over each opponent. Minnesota is beginning to fade with Sam Darnold losing that early magic and tackle Christian Darrisaw out for the season, and Jordan Love continues to make huge mistakes that put Green Bay at risk.
It might sound crazy to bet a -400 future, but if it's really 93% likely, you could certainly do worse things with your money for two months. You can't get many two-month, low-risk investments with a 25% ROI in the rest of the world. Heck, it may not even take two months if the Lions clinch early.
Even if it gets shaky late, the Lions are likely home favorites Week 18 against the Vikings, the team most likely to steal the division if anyone, leaving a pretty easy hedge opportunity if necessary.
But we're not done — that -400 division ticket is actually just buying us a free toll ticket on a Lions Super Bowl win. If you're confident in a Detroit division win, your four-unit investment gives you a one-unit win, and you should bet that one unit right now on a +400 Super Bowl ticket.
Would the Lions be favored in a Super Bowl against an elite quarterback like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson? Maybe, maybe not, but you're not going to get a +400 Detroit moneyline in that game, or even a +400 Lions ticket as the host of the NFC championship.
The Detroit Lions are officially Super Bowl favorites.
And it's time to invest.
