If the Browns and quarterback Joe Flacco make a run, sportsbooks will suffer.
That's the consensus gleaned from data at the two most prominent American sportsbooks: FanDuel and DraftKings.
The Browns are the largest futures liability in both the Super Bowl and AFC markets at DraftKings. And the Browns on the spread vs. the Texans on Saturday is the most popular pick of the day at both DraftKings and FanDuel.
About 84% of the handle at FanDuel — the country's most popular sportsbook — is on the Browns to cover at -2.5. The next closest is the Eagles with about 63% of the handle to cover their game against the Bucs.
Much of the public's gaze is on Browns quarterback Joe Flacco, who came off the couch to give Cleveland a much-needed jolt offensively over the last six weeks. No, it hasn't been pretty — the man loves nothing more than doling out interceptions — but wins speak loudly, especially to retail.
And if the Browns keep winning, it's officially danger zone time for sportsbooks. Cleveland winning it all would be perhaps the worst single option for FanDuel and DraftKings, besides the 49ers beating the Ravens in the Super Bowl. That's because of all the people who bet that chalk exacta matchup at crazy-plus money.
The public will have to hope a trend that favors home underdogs doesn't hold firm. Since 2004, betting on every postseason home underdog's spread would have netted a bettor an 8% return on investment. A $100 per game bettor would have netted $230 over 29 games.
That trend, of course, encompasses the Texans at a spread of +2.5. Do keep in mind that these trends aren't predictive and cover a lower volume sample size because it self-selects for playoff games.
By that same vain, there's a trend that supports Flacco — albeit, at a much smaller sample size and context. Flacco is 5-0 ATS during the Wild Card Round. That's tied with Philip Rivers as the best mark of all-time.
So which one will give? Sportsbooks are certainly rooting heavily in one direction — as is the public.
