Tyreek Hill
ATD +160
The touchdown value on Hill continues to be a head-scratcher. The best number I tracked for him last season was -120. Last week against the Bills, he was +105.
This week, Hill is as low as +105 (FanDuel) or as high as +160 at bet365.
I’m not in love with Tua Tagovailoa as a quarterback, but it’s hard to argue with his success on deep balls this season. On passes 20 or more yards down the field, Tagovailoa ranks second in the NFL in completion percentage, with nine such passes and three touchdowns.
The Hill vs. Eli Apple matchup might be getting too much attention going into this game, but Tagovailoa did say in a press conference this week that he’s going to Hill if he sees 1-on-1 coverage.
Jaylen Waddle
ATD +175
Waddle leads the Dolphins this season in targets, receiving yards and red-zone targets. He’s in the top 10 in the NFL in targets and has scored TDs of the long and short variety this season. The second-year stud is also second in the NFL in Air Yards After Catch, which is Air Yards and yards after the catch combined.
A case can be made for Waddle being the best receiver on the Dolphins right now.
Waddle is +175 at bet365, which means he’s more appropriately priced than Hill. You can also get Waddle, for example, at +165 over at FanDuel.
Bet at FanDuel: Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown
Joe Burrow
To Throw An Interception
Burrow has 23 career interceptions in 29 games. The Bengals also throw the ball so much that this is tough to pass on at a plus-money number.
Last season, Burrow attempted 32 passes per game and threw 14 INTs in 16 games. This season, he’s averaging more than 40 pass attempts per game.
The biggest issue for Burrow this season is his protection, as he’s been sacked 15 times through three games. Miami has an opportunistic defense, so I’ll happily play this as long as it’s a plus number.
