Kicker props are taking over.
This season, my props on kickers are 11-6. If you bet all 17, you'd be up 5.83 units.
For this potentially brutal matchup, I've found value in fading one team's kicker. Commanders vs. Bears isn't expected to be an aesthetically pleasing game for anyone who likes points, so let's bet an under.
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Joey Slye
Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (+125, DraftKings)
Washington had the second-highest two-point-conversion attempts rate last season, and it has the highest in 2022. The Commanders have gone for two five times on the 12 touchdowns they've scored this season.
The wind is expected to be a factor tonight in the, er, Windy City, as well. We're expected to see 15-mph crosswinds at Soldier Field.
As for Joey Slye, he's only made 88% of the extra-point attempts in his career, more than 5% below the league average.
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Commanders -1 | Bears +1
The Commanders offense is also going to be potentially hindered by Carson Wentz's biceps tendon strain.
I project Slye to go under 1.5 extra points made 52% of the time and would bet this to +110.
I'm expecting a low-scoring affair, and this is a good way to do it.
