Since their season-opening loss to the Lions, the Kansas City Chiefs have ripped off four straight wins and enter Thursday Night Football for NFL Week 6 as 10.5-point favorites against a lowly AFC West foe in the Denver Broncos.
Can Russell Wilson keep the game within striking distance as the Broncos try to salvage a season that's already starting to slip away?
Here’s a Broncos vs. Chiefs same game parlay that checks in at +512 for Thursday Night Football, found at bet365.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay (+512)
- Denver +10.5 (-110)
- Courtland Sutton Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)
- Skyy Moore Under 2.5 Receptions (-140)
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Broncos +10.5 (-110)
Hold your noise, ladies and gentlemen, and dive right in. The first leg of this parlay is a stinker, but it’s a great angle.
Everyone has seen the Broncos’ collapse against the Commanders followed by the Dolphins hanging 70 points on them one week later. Sean Payton’s first year has gone anything but according to plan, and the Broncos now sit at 1-4 as 10.5-point underdogs to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The defense is abysmal — I get it. They’re allowing 0.32 EPA per dropback, the worst in the league. It’s historically bad, and they haven’t been able to stop the run, let alone anything. But the offense has moved the ball — something that has gone unnoticed.
They are right around league average in both Pass and Rush DVOA and are 13th in Passing Success Rate. Russell Wilson has an 11:2 TD:INT ratio and has been using his legs plenty, too. Even with Javonte Williams limited to start the year and missing last week, players like Jaleel McLaughlin have stepped up flawlessly in his absence.
All this to say that while I don’t think Denver pulls this one out — I’m crazy but not that psychotic — this is a good spot to buy the Broncos.
Patrick Mahomes is just 14-20-1 ATS as a favorite of seven or more points, and we saw against the Jets that the Chiefs are methodical in their late-game offensive drives and brilliant at running the clock out. Rather than covering a large spread against the Chiefs, Mahomes slid down at the 1-yard line to kneel out the win.
We could very well see the same thing happen here. Not to mention this is a divisional game, and we’ve seen how ugly those can get. I’m backing the road AFC West dog here. Payton and the Broncos are in free fall, but this is a perfect buy spot on a team that nobody wants a piece of.
Courtland Sutton Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)
The expected game script tonight is that the Broncos find themselves down late and are forced to pass to move the ball downfield.
Courtland Sutton has gone under 3.5 receptions in each of the last two weeks — he was nearly held catchless last week against a stout Jets secondary — but he cleared this number in Denver’s first three games.
Since last year in games started by Wilson, Sutton has eclipsed 3.5 receptions in 13 of 19 games (68%), and one of those games saw a second-quarter departure for Sutton due to injury.
This is the perfect game script for Sutton to make an impact. The Broncos are large underdogs to the Chiefs and will likely be forced into a negative game script. That means more routes for Sutton, who is tied with Jerry Jeudy for the team lead in targets (19). No other Denver receiver has more than eight.
While the Chiefs defense ranks 10th in DVOA against the pass, their ability to build a large lead has resulted in plenty of opposing receivers hauling in 4+ receptions. That list includes Christian Kirk (11), Garrett Wilson (9), Amon-Ra St. Brown (6), Jordan Addison (6), K.J. Osborn (5) and even Brandon Powell (4), among others.
For what it’s worth, in Denver’s losses since 2022 where Sutton did not leave early due to injury, he’s hauled in 4+ receptions in 11 of 14 games (78.6%). At close to a pick'em odds-wise, this prop presents a lot of value.
Skyy Moore Under 2.5 Receptions (-140)
Rashee Rice's rise has led to the downfall of multiple Chiefs receivers in the passing game. Tack on a hefty spread, and we could see a run-first mentality in the second half behind the efficient Isiah Pacheco.
Skyy Moore has been one of the players who has taken a hit in production recently. Over the last two weeks, Moore has averaged just two targets per game. He has been held under 2.5 receptions in 60% of games this season, with one of those games coming when Kadarius Toney played just two snaps.
Looking closer at Moore’s snap counts, they have decreased with each week. Since Week 3 (65%), Moore’s snaps have slowly declined to 59 and 56 percent. The Chiefs have deployed more two tight ends sets and rotated their receivers plenty in that span.
Moore is a gadget player, and there are multiple plays designed for the speedy receiver each game. Two weeks ago he ran the ball twice, and we could very well see that tonight when winds may reach up to 20 mph.
Given the Chiefs’ large spread and their wide receiver carousel, I like fading Moore, who has been held under three receptions in each of his last two games. Our Action Network projections slate Moore for 2.1 receptions.
