My strategy for Thursday Night Football between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints is to create a correlated same game parlay that pinpoints the way I see TNF playing out.
There are three legs in total and I break down each one below. Same game parlays don't present the best value so bet responsibly.
Alvin Kamara
4+ Receptions (-230)
Despite serving a three-game suspension at the beginning of the season, Alvin Kamara currently leads all running backs in target share.
His 89% route participation (excluding the Saints' 34-0 rout of the Patriots), ensures he is involved in the passing game. Even with Jamaal Williams set to steal some rush attempts, Kamara is still in an excellent spot against the Jaguars, who have allowed the fourth-most receptions to opposing running backs (6.50) and have a strong defense against the run.
Derek Carr will be without starting linemen James Hurst and Ryan Ramczyk, which could lead to more checkdowns against the Jaguars, who have a high blitz rate of 32.4% (per Pro Football Reference).
Christian Kirk
40+ Receiving Yards (-250)
Christian Kirk continues to perform at a high level this season with an average of 64.0 yards per game. He has managed to go over 40+ yards in five consecutive games.
The fact that Kirk has a team-leading 32% target share against man coverage is ideal considering the Saints utilize man at the second-highest rate (34.1%) in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.
Additionally, Kirk gets the best matchup in the slot — where he runs 70.6% of the time — versus Saints slot cornerback Alontae Taylor. With Zay Jones out of the lineup — plus not having to face Marshon Lattimore — Kirk's chances of success will be higher.
Teams are targeting the slot at a high rate. Receivers aligned in that position gain an average of 76.8 receiving yards per game (10th highest), according to Fantasy Points' Data Suite.
Chris Olave
50+ Receiving Yards (-230)
Chris Olave has averaged 69.0 yards per game and has exceeded 50+ receiving yards in four of six games. He is leading the Saints in air yard share, average depth of target and receiving yards.
The two times he didn't hit 50 yards occurred during the blowout of the Patriots and a game Derek Carr shouldn't have played.
As for the matchup, the Jaguars' top cornerback, Tyson Campbell, will not be playing tonight, which should create a more opportunities for deep targets.
Jaguars vs. Saints Same Game Parlay (+204)
- Alvin Kamara 4+ Receptions
- Christian Kirk 40+ Receiving Yards
- Chris Olave 50+ Receiving Yards
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