Thanksgiving — a time for turkey, cranberry sauce, football, and props!
The NFL brings us three matchups on Thursday, each point spread under a touchdown. We have scoured the myriad of PrizePicks prop bets and identified several where we see an edge using the Action Labs Props Tool, powered by Sean Koerner's industry-leading projections.
Let's enjoy Thanksgiving dinner and win some money.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30!) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Thursday NFL Player Props on PrizePicks
Andy Dalton Over 8.5 Rushing Yards
With Justin Fields out (ribs), veteran Andy Dalton will be under center for the Bears in this NFC North battle at Detroit. Throughout his career, Dalton has always found a way to move the ball on offense, even if it means rushing.
Despite being 34 years of age, Dalton has averaged over 10 rushing yards per game in his 15 starts with Dallas and Chicago over the past two years. With limited offensive weapons, and no Allen Robinson, I expect Dalton to use every possible option to try and move the ball for a stagnant Chicago offense.
In his two previous games as a starter, he averaged 19 yards rushing, against the Rams and Bengals.
We project Dalton for nine rushing yards, so this is a 7 out of 10 rated prop by Sean Koerner on the Action Labs Props Tool.
Stefon Diggs Under 75.5 Receiving Yards
New Orleans is hosting Buffalo. The Saints need this game badly to avoid dropping a fourth straight contest. I expect a superior defensive game plan by the fifth-best overall defense, per DVOA.
Bills WR Stefon Diggs enters this game with 85 or more receiving yards in three of his past five games. New Orleans has allowed the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but has been specifically poor against No. 2 and No. 3 wideouts. New Orleans is actually the worst team in the league at limiting opposing WR3s.
Diggs has enjoyed a couple big performances recently, but is still averaging just 77.3 receiving yards per game on the season. In a difficult matchup against a desperate New Orleans defense, I don't see him hitting this total.
We project Diggs for only 68.5 receiving yards, making this an 8-rated prop per Action Labs.
Damiere Byrd Over 6.5 Receiving Yards
This prop is set excessively low at 6.5 receiving yards, a full two yards under most other books. Our projections have Bears WR Damiere Byrd tallying over 15 receiving yards.
With Allen Robinson sidelined, we project Byrd to see a season-high in routes run. Over the past two weeks, Byrd has seen an average of 18 routes per game. With 4.32 40-yard dash speed, he should find a way to grab one reception, which should be all it takes to hit this low prop.
Michael Gallup Under 54.5 Receiving Yards
The absence of Amari Cooper has bettors flocking to hit the over on Michael Gallup's receiving total.
I'm going the other direction.
Dallas has a myriad of other receiving options besides Gallup. Wideout CeeDee Lamb is expected to play, with WR Cedrick Wilson, running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, and tight end Dalton Schultz all viable receiving options as well.
Over his career, Gallup just hasn't produced high yardage totals. This includes games without Amari Cooper and Lamb. Over 48 career games, Gallup is averaging exactly 53.7 receiving yards per game. Even in games at home? That number is only 54 receiving yards per game.
Add in the fact that Gallup is facing a Las Vegas defense that allows the sixth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and I am going against the public and taking the under on Gallup's receiving yardage prop.
Our Prop Tool only projects Gallup for 47.5 receiving yards, and is an 8-rated prop by Sean Koerner.
Tony Pollard Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
Teams deploy their backup running back at a much higher rate when playing in the Thursday game on a short turnaround. Here are some notable lines from RB2s on Thursday night this season:
- J.D. McKissic (Washington): 93 total yards, TD
- Chuba Hubbard (Carolina): 52 rushing yards
- Sony Michel (Los Angeles): 37 rushing yards, TD
- Ronald Jones (Tampa Bay): 20 total yards
- AJ Dillion (Green Bay): 78 rushing yards
- Nyheim Hines (Indianapolis): 108 total yards, TD
In each of those situations, the player beat their rushing or receiving prop total for that game. In some cases (Hines), they beat both.
With Dallas playing on Thanksgiving without Cooper (COVID) and with teammate CeeDee Lamb questionable, I'm backing Tony Pollard to beat this very low receiving total of 11.5 yards at PrizePicks. Most books have this number at 15.5 or even 16.5 as of late Wednesday night.
Pollard has beat this total in seven of ten games this season, and has the perfect trio of variables working in his favor: Thursday night game, no Cooper, and a Las Vegas defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
While I don't think Gallup will be involved as much as most bettors, I think the receiving value for Ezekiel Elliott and Pollard is being very overlooked.
Pollard ranks fourth among all running backs with 2.7 yards per route run (PlayerProfiler). He just needs to see an increase in opportunity to beat this number, which should come at home against the Raiders on Thanksgiving.
