The TennesseeTitans pulled off the biggest betting upset of the season as 13.5-point underdogs and the fourth-biggest upset in Monday Night Football history. The comeback win capped a doubleheader finish to Week 14 that greatly impacted the playoff race. The Dolphins had closed at -900 for the game at some books, while the Titans were as long as +625 'dogs on the moneyline.
Based on Action Network's public betting data, 76% of bets and 69% of the money was on the Dolphins to cover the double-digit spread. Instead, they find themselves on the wrong side of history.
A pair of fourth-quarter turnovers deep in Tennessee territory appeared to doom the Titans. Raheem Mostert turned them into a pair of touchdowns, and it looked like the Dolphins would have an unlikely cover after trailing entering the final quarter.
Instead, the Titans scored 15 unanswered points in the final 2:40 to pull out the win. Will Levis authored a nine-play, 75-yard drive in 1:54 that ended with a DeAndre Hopkins touchdown reception and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine two-point conversion. Then, after the defense got a stop, Levis led the Titans on a four-play, 64-yard drive in only 26 seconds, culminating with Derrick Henry’s game-winning touchdown run.
The Titans became the first team since 2016 to win when down by 14 points with less than three minutes remaining. Teams had previously gone 0-767 in that situation.
The loss greatly hindered Miami’s chances for the top seed in the AFC. The Dolphins would have had a 47% chance with a win, according to the NYT simulator, but they instead dropped to as low as 20%. The Ravens are now the favorites to win the AFC. The Dolphins are down to -400 to win the AFC East, while the Bills are now +300 at BetMGM after their close win in Kansas City Sunday.
Miami also lost Tyreek Hill for stretches at a time with an ankle injury he suffered in the first quarter. Hill managed to make his way back to the field after halftime, but he was in and out of the lineup the rest of the way. He finished with four catches for 61 yards, but a hampered Hill certainly hurts Miami’s chances to earn the highest possible seed in the playoffs.
In the Meadowlands, cult hero Tommy DeVito led the New YorkGiants to a last-second 24-22 victory over the scorching-hot Green Bay Packers. The Packers had closed as 5.5-point favorites after three-straight wins over the Chargers, Lions and Chiefs. Unfortunately for them, they couldn’t do to the man dubbed “Tommy Cutlets” what they did to Justin Herbert, Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes.
DeVito led Big Blue on an eight-play, 58-yard drive over the final 1:33 to set up Randy Bullock’s game-winning 37-yard field goal. It was New York's third straight win, with all coming as 'dogs.
Green Bay still has a strong chance to make the postseason, but the loss was a significant blow. A win would have given them upwards of an 82% chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times simulator. However, their loss lowered their odds to as low as 52%.
The win also theoretically puts the Giants in the hunt for the final Wild Card spot. New York is now 5-8 and just one game behind the 6-7 Packers for the No. 7 seed. However, they'd have to overtake four other teams that hold tie-breaker advantages over them.
Perhaps the biggest winner from tonight's game is the San Francisco 49ers, who became the first team to clinch a postseason berth as a result of Green Bay’s loss. The 49ers are currently the favorite to win the Super Bowl at +235, according to DraftKings.
