There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans matchup on Monday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props.
So will the player props tool at FantasyLabs, which takes each prop bet listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverages them against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.
*All odds as of 12 p.m. ET on Monday
Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins
The pick: Under 92.5 receiving yards (-105)
In the first five weeks of the season, Hopkins was averaging 11.4 targets per game, but since Week 6, the Texans have scaled back Deshaun Watson's pass attempts.
Overall, the Texans' second-year QB is averaging 23.4 pass attempts in his past five games, compared to 38.4 attempts in the first five weeks. As a result, Hopkins is getting just 7.8 targets per game from Week 6-10.
During that five-week decrease in usage, Hopkins has cleared 92 receiving yards just once (71.2 receiving yards per game), otherwise, he's been held below 82 receiving yards in four of those five weeks.
Hopkins will have to be uber-efficient to exceed 92.5 receiving yards if Watson's pass attempts continue to be this low.
Texans WR Demaryius Thomas
The pick: Under 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
Since Deshaun Watson's pass attempts have been dialed back over the past five weeks, I like the idea of hammering the unders on his pass-catchers, especially Thomas has yet to be heavily involved.
Since joining the team, Thomas has seen just four targets (8.5% target share) even though he's played 76% of the snaps. Watson still favors Keke Coutee and Hopkins as they've soaked up a combined 76% target share since Thomas joined the team.
