The Tennessee Titans will travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams on Sunday Night Football.
The Titans are inexplicably atop the AFC playoff picture with a record of 6-2 despite their paltry defense, which ranked as low as 30th in defensive DVOA earlier this season.
Now, their offense will assuredly run into problems, too. Star running back Derrick Henry may miss the remainder of the season after undergoing foot surgery earlier this week.
Henry was, effectively, the anchor to their entire offense. The offense changes entirely without him on the field.
With Henry in the backfield, the Titans run the ball about 58% of the time and throw 42% of the time since 2019. Without him, the Titans pass the ball 83% of the time and run 17%.
Their play-action numbers also drop precipitously too, from 57% to 7% of snaps. The Titans become almost wholly dependent on dropback passes from Ryan Tannehill when Henry is out. Not ideal.
Tennessee's offensive efficiency across the board drops by every major metric without Henry.
The Rams will hope their ninth-ranked defense can capitalize.
Los Angeles also has No. 1 ranked offensive according to DVOA. That's led by robust skill position talent up and down the field, along with MVP contender Matthew Stafford.
Bettors are favoring the Rams despite their heavy spread at -7.5.
About 83% of the total public money is on the Rams -7.5.
And bettors love these three props, too, associated with the Rams offense.
Titans v. Rams Most Popular Game Props
- The Rams will be last team to record a score (-150)
- The team that scores first will win the game (-210)
- The first drive of the game will result in a touchdown (+220)
The first popular prop I wouldn't touch. It's far too variable of a prop and can't be properly modeled from a value perspective.
The second prop is easier to measure.
In games involving the Rams or Titans this season, teams that score first in the game eventually win eight out of 15 games.
That rate of about 53% implies odds of about -115.
The value on -210 isn't great here, but it's probably the best bet on the docket.
The third bet is also too variable to put a specific edge on it.
Honestly, I'd pass on all three of these props. For this game, throw the Rams at -7.5 in a six-point teaser with the Cardinals at +2.5 at a price of -110.
The Rams are far better on both sides of the ball and will pull out a victory over the Titans. You'll get better value teasing their line down to -1.5 than you will with a -350 moneyline.
And I don't see the Cardinals losing by more than one possession, but feel free to tease the Rams with any other team you deem fit.
